The run home that will shape the WNBL postseason
The business end of the WNBL season is fast approaching. It's time to take a look at the home stretch, for teams still in the postseason hunt.
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With seven rounds left in the 2022/23 WNBL season, there’s no doubt a number of teams have separated themselves from the pack, while others are struggling to stay afloat. The business end of the season is quickly approaching and as we inch closer to the postseason, every game just means a little bit more.
With that in mind, it’s time to take a look at the run home for the top five teams that will be jostling for playoff positioning and fighting for those final playoff spots. It’s a tight race at the top, while the battle for the fourth and final playoff spot is far from over.
Melbourne Boomers (10-2)
Games remaining against current top five teams: five
The Boomers have been on a mission this season as they look to defend their title and being able to more than cover the massive loss of Tess Madgen (who made her season debut last week) has been a credit to their superstars standing up and also the mid-season signing of 22 year old Aussie Miela Goodchild, who has provided strong minutes in Madgen’s absence.
Melbourne’s three superstars; Kristy Wallace, Cayla George and Tiffany Mitchell have been everything coach Chris Lucas could’ve hoped for and they are powering the Boomers forward, while the addition of Mia Murray has been one of the most underrated signings of the offseason as she has continually provided a huge offensive boost.
Sitting on top of the ladder, things are going swimmingly for Melbourne, but their two losses have both come against crosstown rivals Southside. In both meetings, the Boomers were unable to figure out the Flyers and you get the sense their final regular season meeting in late February will be a huge game mentally for the Boomers. Going 0-3 against your biggest championship rival is not how you want to head into a possible playoff matchup.
The marquee matchups:
Melbourne vs Bendigo, 22 January and 5 February.
Townsville vs Melbourne, 15 February.
Southside vs Melbourne, 22 February.
Southside Flyers (9-3)
Games remaining against current top five teams: five
Winners of their last five games —with three of those coming in blow-out wins against Bendigo (twice) and Melbourne— Southside boasts incredible depth and star power. On any given night it could be anyone’s signature game; case in point was Sara Blicavs’ incredible 41-point outing against Melbourne last week. Shoutout to Sara for that performance – it truly was one of the best individual offensive showcases we’ve seen in the WNBL for a long time.
The Flyers will undoubtedly have their sights set on a top-two finish, and after four games on the road starting on Friday night against Perth, Southside finish the season with four out of five games at home. One of those games will be against the Sydney Flames at John Cain Arena on 4 February — a contest that could see one of the largest WNBL crowds in history turn out for the first ever WNBL game at the 10,500 seat capacity venue.
The marquee matchups:
Bendigo vs Southside, 11 February.
Southside vs Melbourne, 22 February.
Southside vs Townsville, 4 March.
Bendigo Spirit (8-3)
Games remaining against current top five teams: seven
After starting the season 7-0, the Spirit have endured a rough past couple of weeks going 1-3, including two heavy losses at the hands of the Flyers. While some are panicking about Bendigo, they have a chance to really consolidate themselves once again with the next three games being against Canberra twice and Adelaide.
During their recent 1-3 run, Bendigo has struggled at times to dig themselves out of an offensive rut. When their offence has stalled in a contest, they’ve taken too long to regain their composure and put the pressure back on their opponents. Their eight point final quarter against Melbourne on Sunday led to their downfall as they were unable to go with the Boomers when push came to shove.
The good news is that Bendigo knows what works for them and have time to rediscover their dominant early season form. With the likes of Anneli Maley and Kelsey Griffin on their side, they’re always a strong chance against any opposition.
The marquee matchups:
Melbourne vs Bendigo, 22 January and 5 February.
Bendigo vs Southside, 11 February.
Bendigo vs Townsville, 1 March.
Townsville Fire (6-4)
Games remaining against current top five teams: six
The Fire gained a bounceback win against Canberra last week, after dropping their previous two games and remain in the box seat to grab the final playoff spot. With their next four games coming against Sydney (twice), Adelaide and Canberra, the Fire have a chance to solidify their playoff positioning even further over the next couple of weeks.
Townsville has perhaps the most interesting run home. Their next four games are against bottom three teams, then a massive Round 13 where they face the Lynx in Perth twice, which will have a huge say in the race for fourth, before finishing the season off with four of their last five games against top three opponents.
With Townsville and Perth fighting for the final playoff spot, those two battles in Round 13 will be must-watch basketball. If Townsville is able to grab both wins, they might just about book their post-season ticket, whereas if Perth protect home-court, fourth spot will likely be up for grabs.
The marquee matchups:
Townsville vs Perth, 1 February and 4 February.
Townsville vs Bendigo, 18 February.
Southside vs Townsville, 4 March.
Perth Lynx (5-5)
Games remaining against current top five teams: seven
The Lynx remain in the playoff hunt, thanks largely to their current three-game winning streak. If Perth do sneak into the postseason, they’ll have absolutely earned it as they face a tough road home with seven of their final 11 games against top four teams.
Chloe Bibby has been a revelation for the Lynx, averaging a team-high 18.7 points per game, and alongside Lauren Scherf, Perth boasts a dominant frontcourt duo that can compete against the best bigs in the league. Both will play massive roles down the stretch for the Lynx as they look to stay alive in the playoff race.
As mentioned above, Round 13 could be the round that shapes the playoffs picture when Perth host Townsville at home twice.
The marquee matchups:
Perth vs Southside, 13 January.
Townsville vs Perth, 1 February and 4 February.
Perth vs Bendigo, 25 February.
Adelaide Lightning (4-8), Sydney Flames (3-8) and Canberra Capitals (0-12)
While Adelaide still holds a chance to make the playoffs, they are going to need a miracle. Despite only being two wins behind Townsville, they have four more losses than the Fire, and making that gap up in their final nine games is a big ask and would require Townsville —and Perth for that matter— to have a fall from grace.
Sydney has chalked up some wins this season, but it hasn’t been easy. They’ve struggled to defend their opposition for large periods in games and haven’t had enough players stand up on the offensive end to compete.
It’s been a season from hell for the Canberra Capitals as injuries took their toll early and they haven’t been able to recover. From the outset, their team had question marks, and losing an import early on didn’t help things. They are running out of legitimate opportunities to grab a win before the season is over.