Predicting the 2024 Paris Olympics Boomers roster

We are just six months out from the opening ceremony of the 2024 Paris Olympics, and the race for the 12 man Boomers roster is starting to heat up.

The 2020 Tokyo Olympics will go down as a landmark moment in Australian basketball history, and the Australian Boomers now hold challenging ambitions to eclipse their bronze medal success. More recently, Australia’s uncharacteristic group stage exit at the 2023 FIBA World Cup represented an anti-climatic sequel to the highs of Tokyo, and leaves the team with plenty to prove. We have six months to the start of the 2024 Paris Olympics, and it’s time to cast an eye on the contenders for selection, with only twelve spots up for grabs on the final roster.

Credit: FIBA

The locks

Patty Mills - Guard

Patty Mills was Australia’s flag bearer at the 2020 Tokyo Olympics and lived up to his status as the team’s talismanic leader. In the seminal bronze medal clash against Slovenia, Mills dropped 42 points and nine assists to cap off another excellent campaign in the green and gold. The veteran earned All-Star Five honours for the Olympic tournament, alongside several NBA household names in Rudy Gobert, Kevin Durant, Ricky Rubio and Luka Dončić.

Even at the age of 35 now, there’s no way Mills won’t be on the team, but it’s possible he misses out on a starting berth. At the time of writing, Mills has appeared in just seven games for the Atlanta Hawks this season, and is averaging single digit minutes. We all know what Mills is capable of when he puts the Australia jersey on, but it may be time to hand over the reins to the next generation. Josh Giddey, Danté Exum, Josh Green and Dyson Daniels are all receiving regular NBA minutes, and appear poised to dislodge Mills from the starting back court.

Josh Giddey - Guard

Josh Giddey is currently Australia’s winningest NBA player, with the Oklahoma City Thunder sitting on a 24-11 record at the time of writing. Unfortunately Giddey has paid a price for team success by settling into a reduced role, while the likes of Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander have made strides this season. Giddey’s counting stats have taken a hit with his teammates commanding more of the ball - he currently sits on season averages of 12.0 points, 6.0 rebounds and 4.6 assists per game.

Nonetheless, Giddey is having his most efficient shooting season yet, at least from outside the paint. The 20 year old currently makes 37.0% of his 2.7 three-point attempts per game (up from 32.5% last year) and made 53.6% of his mid range jumpers beyond ten feet (albeit on a small sample size of 0.8 attempts per game).

Giddey’s gifted passing ability hasn’t gone anywhere, and he showcased his skills as Australia’s floor general at the 2023 World Cup. The rising star averaged 19.4 points, 5.0 rebounds and 6.0 assists, proving to be a shining light in what turned out to be a disappointing campaign. There’s a case for Exum to take the reigns as he is arguably Australia’s best NBA player on recent form, but for now, Giddey likely holds the keys to the car.

Danté Exum - Guard

In previous tournaments Danté Exum might not have been listed as a lock, but the 2023-24 NBA season has changed everything. Exum averaged an impressive 15.3 points, 3.8 rebounds and 4.5 assists in the month of December (13 games), while shooting 61% from the field and 53% from downtown (3.5 attempts per game). Unfortunately a heel complaint derailed his momentum since, but Exum already established himself as a starter on the Dallas Mavericks.

Exum boasts a versatile two-way skill set, including a quick first step, transition speed, above-the-rim athleticism, playmaking ability and a much improved jumper. That jump shot has allowed Exum to thrive in his second NBA stint, and gives him a major point of difference over the likes of Giddey or Daniels. Furthermore, Exum’s athleticism and switchability on the defensive end can’t be matched by Mills or Giddey, strengthening the former’s case for a starting berth.

Whether he starts or not however, Exum should be in line for significant minutes in Brian Goorjian’s rotation. It would be a crying shame to see such an in-form NBA talent sitting on the bench, as he did for much of the 2023 FIBA World Cup. And there’s little question about Exum’s adaptability, as he has excelled alongside Luka Dončić - an offensive juggernaut who commands much of the ball.

Duop Reath - Centre

Much like Exum, Reath would not have been a lock in previous tournaments, but the big man has also made the most of the 2023-24 NBA season. Backing up Deandre Ayton on the Portland Trail Blazers, Reath initially found little playing time, but eventually earned the trust of the Blazers coaching staff. He has now started seven games, thanks to Ayton’s recurring absences, and recently exploded for 25 points and nine rebounds in a win over Sacramento.

Reath’s season averages of 8.8 points and 3.8 rebounds don’t jump off the page, but this is impressive output for someone playing under 17 minutes per game. He is one of Australia’s most versatile big men, packing a 37.1% three-point clip this NBA season (on 3.7 attempts per game), as well as underrated passing vision. At 6’9 tall Reath is slightly undersized to be a dominant rim protector, but has the athleticism to hold his own against class big men.

Fellow centre Jock Landale has been starved of playing time in Houston, while Nick Kay is currently plying his trade in Japan. Reath has ascended to become Australia’s premier NBA big man, and should be in line for a significant role at the Paris Olympics. He was arguably underutilised at the 2023 FIBA World Cup, averaging just 15 minutes even after Landale went down with a pre-tournament injury.

Joe Ingles - Guard/Forward

Joe Ingles turns 37 in October, and thus he will likely suit up for his last Olympics in Paris. Even in the twilight of his career, Jinglin’ Joe has aged gracefully, and remains an important rotation piece on a contending NBA team. He is averaging 4.9 points, 2.8 rebounds and 3.4 assists for the Orlando Magic, who have surprised many onlookers by surging to a 21-16 record. Ingles has proven to be a high value secondary playmaker off the bench, and is shooting a touch above 40% from downtown - on 2.5 attempts per game.

Given that Goorjian has an abundance of guards to call upon, and a relative lack of NBA-based forwards, Ingles projects as a lock for the roster yet again. He may not be a starting player, but it would be a shock to see his experience, passing ability and outside shot left out of Australia’s twelve man roster. Expect Ingles to take a step back in Paris, with the likes of Green, Thybulle and Exum likely stepping up to log wing minutes. But the 37 year old will be looking to make the most of his fourth and (likely) final Olympic games, after a disappointing end to the 2023 FIBA World Cup.

Josh Green - Guard/Forward

It may sound bold to list Josh Green as a lock, but he is averaging a touch under 25 minutes for one of the NBA’s premier Western Conference teams, in the Dallas Mavericks. An injury earlier in the season had allowed compatriot Exum to step up and enjoy his breakout month of basketball, but Green is back with a vengeance now. After missing nearly four weeks of basketball in December, Green has slotted seamlessly back into the Mavericks’ rotation, regularly playing in excess of 20 minutes.

The Sydney native is posting season averages of 6.6 points, 2.8 rebounds and 2.4 assists, while shooting 44.9% from the field and 34.7% from downtown (on 2.9 attempts per game). He has proven to be a real “glue guy”, complementing Dallas’ star duo of Dončić and Kyrie Irving. Green projects as a high value “3 and D” weapon on the Boomers, who will fit seamlessly along the likes of Josh Giddey. His shooting ability gives him a point of difference over Daniels, and his athleticism on defence could be a major asset to the Boomers, especially in combination with other athletic wings like Exum or Matisse Thybulle.

Matisse Thybulle - Guard/Forward

Just as Matisse Thybulle’s career was stagnating in Philadelphia, a trade to Portland gave him a new lease on life. Thybulle has found the best shooting form of his career, making over 38% of his three-pointers since joining the Trail Blazers - on a touch under four attempts per game. He still has the same defensive tenacity that once earned him NBA All-Defensive Second Team honours, and the Boomers will be calling upon this off-ball skillset in Paris.

Australia needs a lockdown defender to match up against star players on the perimeter, like Thybulle often did against Dončić in the Tokyo Olympics. And if Goorjian chooses to play through a ball dominant floor general like Giddey again, he will need all the off-ball talent he can get his hands on. Hopefully Thybulle’s improved three ball can translate to the Paris Olympics, as well as his excellence in the passing lanes (currently averaging 1.7 steals in the 2023-24 NBA season). The chances of Thybulle not making the squad are quite slim, given his high defensive value, much improved three ball and status as an incumbent since the 2020 Tokyo Olympics.

The probables

Jock Landale - Centre

Jock Landale has endured a difficult 2023-24 NBA season, after initially signing a much-hyped four year deal with the Houston Rockets. Stuck behind Alperen Şengün, who is currently in the running of the NBA’s Most Improved Player award, Landale is averaging under ten minutes per game, across just 21 appearances thus far. Nevertheless, just last season he was a productive role player on the Phoenix Suns, and Goorjian isn’t going to forget that. Landale was also a standout at the 2020 Tokyo Olympics, where he put up 12.8 points and 4.7 rebounds in just 21.8 minutes per game.

Given Australia’s relative lack of depth at the centre position, Landale would have to be very unlucky to lose his spot any time soon. If he can put together a productive 2024 Olympic campaign, the 28 year old may be able to parlay that form into an increased NBA role. Landale’s ability to stretch the floor and crash the offensive glass does overlap with Reath and Kay to a large degree, but the former has 6’11 size and is thus the biggest body out of the three. When matching up against hulking centres like Rudy Gobert, the Boomers will need to call upon a near seven footer like Landale.

Nick Kay - Power Forward/Centre

Nick Kay was one of Australia’s best at the 2020 Tokyo Olympics, but he couldn’t quite recapture that form at the 2023 FIBA World Cup. Kay averaged 6.4 points and 4.6 rebounds in 23.5 minutes per game at the World Cup, becoming one of Australia’s go to big men in the absence of Landale (injured). One could argue Goorjian was leaning too heavily on the former Perth Wildcat, while Reath often found himself languishing on the bench. Kay is capable of crashing the boards at both ends, but doesn’t have the size to be a consistent rim protector.

Nevertheless, we can’t forget Kay’s output at the 2020 Olympics, where he averaged 11.0 points and 6.3 rebounds in 27.9 minutes per game. The 6’9 power forward is capable of stretching the floor, much like Reath or Landale, and knows how to pass the ball out of the post. Currently Kay is putting up career-best numbers for Shimane of the Japanese B.League, with 17.8 points, 8.4 rebounds and 3.6 assists per game. As an incumbent with strong form at club level it’s hard to picture Goorjian leaving Kay out, but the 31 year old may end up ceding front court minutes to the surging Reath.

Dyson Daniels - Guard

Dyson Daniels was on the fringes of selection for the 2023 FIBA World Cup, and ultimately made the final roster after Landale’s untimely injury. He was used sparingly by Goorjian however, logging a total of just ten minutes throughout the entire tournament. Now with the 2024 Paris Olympics approaching, Daniels finds himself in a similar situation, but he’s taken an extra step at club level, with the NBA’s New Orleans Pelicans.

Daniels is averaging 6.1 points, 3.9 rebounds and 2.7 assists in 23 minutes, across 37 NBA games at the time of writing. Injuries to key players at various points in the season, including Trey Murphy III, C.J. McCollum and Zion Williamson, opened the door for Daniels to even start 13 games. Daniels has emerged as a versatile rotation piece, offering a blend of perimeter defence, rebounding and secondary playmaking. Offensively his jumper isn’t quite there yet, with a sub-30% clip from downtown this season, but he has a nifty floater that allows him to extend his range beyond the rim. Given the growth in his game and the aforementioned NBA credentials, Daniels is unlikely to miss out on a Boomers jersey in Paris, but given his inexperience, the 20 year old is closer to the fringes of selection.

The possibles

Xavier Cooks - Power forward

Xavier Cooks was on the fringes of selection for the 2023 FIBA World Cup, but he ultimately carried the momentum from his NBA call up into a Boomers jersey. The 28 year old had an up-and-down World Cup, with the highs of a 24 point/16 rebound game against Japan, followed immediately by four fouls and two points against Slovenia. Cooks is currently a regular double double threat for Chiba Jets of Japan’s B.League, but with averages of 10.9 points and 8.5 rebounds, he hasn’t quite been at his dominant best.

With a well-built 6’8 frame, Cooks is capable of crashing the boards and guarding most forwards. However he can’t stretch the floor like Kay, Landale, Reath or White can, and thus does most of his work in the paint. If Goorjian opts for spacing, Cooks might be the unlucky man to miss out from the Boomers World Cup roster, but there could be room for him if the veteran coach opts for a dynamic energy big. Cooks will likely find himself on the fringes of selection again, and Australia’s relative lack of big man depth works in his favour. However it’s worth noting that at 6’8, Cooks doesn’t match up well against the bigger centres, and doesn’t offer much upside as a rim protector.

Jack White - Forward

Jack White was another player who snuck in to the Boomers’ twelve man 2023 FIBA World Cup roster, but ultimately saw little playing time. He averaged 7.6 minutes across his six World Cup appearances, with most of those minutes coming in blowout wins over Finland and Georgia. White recently picked up an NBA championship ring as a member of the Denver Nuggets’ roster, although he didn’t make any playoff appearances, and made most of his impact for their G League side - the Grand Rapids Gold.

White returned for a second G League stint in the 2023-24 season, this time with the South Bay Lakers. He’s currently averaging 10.5 points and 7.6 rebounds for the Lakers, which is a well below his 20-point/10-rebound average from last season, but this is on a relatively small sample of 11 games thus far. White still offers tremendous value as a forward who can spread the floor and corral offensive rebounds. However, standing at just 6’6, he doesn’t quite have the size to effectively switch onto centres or bigger forwards. White will likely be battling Cooks for one of the final power forward spots on the Boomers’ Paris 2024 roster.

Chris Goulding/Dejan Vasiljevic - Guard

Chris Goulding was a member of Australia’s final roster at the 2023 FIBA World Cup, but played a total of just ten minutes throughout the whole tournament. There were calls from many onlookers to insert him into various losing contests, where an injection of offence could have theoretically sparked a Boomers revival. He is listed alongside Adelaide 36er Dejan Vasiljevic here, as both players fill a similar void. Vasiljevic, like Goulding, is a fearless shooter with a low threshold for launching the ball from downtown. Both are averaging a touch under 20 points in the 2023-24 NBL season, although Goulding has been the more efficient of the two - at age 35, the veteran is posting a career best 44% clip from downtown (on over ten attempts per game).

Given that Goorjian has so many guards at his disposal, both players will be on the outskirts of the twelve man roster. One could make a case for Vasiljevic given that Goulding is approaching the twilight of his career, and has been given plenty of opportunities in crucial matches at major tournaments, with little output. But on the other hand, the 35 year old has enjoyed a renaissance of sorts this season, and his experience could make the difference for Australia.

Ben Simmons - Guard/Forward

It’s anyone’s guess as to when we will see Ben Simmons wear the green and gold again. The former NBA All-Star hasn’t suited up for Australia since he made two brief appearances at the 2013 FIBA Oceania Championship, and fans have ultimately been left disappointed on numerous occasions with false hope. Simmons has been sidelined since early November due to left lower back nerve impingement, and prior to that, was well below the form that once saw him make an All-NBA team. Granted, Simmons was still posting averages of 6.5 points, 10.8 rebounds and 6.7 assists, but that doesn’t guarantee him a starting Boomers role in this day and age.

Given the rise of Giddey and Exum, Simmons would have faced some serious competition for a role as the Boomers’ primary ball handler. The former #1 NBA draft pick may have to accept a role as a forward, in a secondary playmaker capacity, when he eventually suits up for the Boomers. But given that Simmons has always been difficult to recruit, even when healthy, it’s hard to imagine him playing in Paris after a lengthy period of rehabilitation. Goorjian remains hopeful, but odds are we would not expect to see Ben Simmons at the 2024 Paris Olympics.

Honourable mentions

Matthew Dellavedova - A legend of Australian basketball, but after missing out on the Boomers’ 2023 FIBA World Cup roster, and another year in the books, there doesn’t seem to be a way back for him, especially given the rise of younger guards like Giddey, Daniels, Thybulle and Green.

Mitch Creek - One of Australia’s premier NBL players, averaging 19.3 points and 6.8 rebounds this season. But the one-time NBL Fans’ MVP couldn’t crack Goorjian’s 18 man roster ahead of the 2023 World Cup, and there’s little reason to believe that will change now. “He was considered but again a lot of depth in that position and we had to make hard decisions and he was one of them,” said Goorjian, after the 2023 World Cup roster was announced.

Nathan Sobey - Like Creek, another NBL veteran with numerous individual accolades to his name, including All-NBL First Team honours in 2021. However, Sobey missed out on Goorjian’s 18 man extended roster ahead of the 2023 World Cup. It’s worth noting that Sobey has now increased his scoring average to a career high twenty-plus points per game, but unfortunately for him he plays in Australia’s most stacked position. The Boomers are overflowing with talented guards, and thus it’s very difficult to see Sobey getting a look in for the twelve man roster.

Sam Froling - Froling is a regular double-double threat in the NBL, averaging 15.3 points and 7.8 rebounds for the Illawarra Hawks. But with similar output last year he couldn’t break through to Goorjian’s twelve man roster, and it’s hard to picture him being selected over incumbents like Reath, Kay, White and Landale.

Tyrese Proctor - Probably Australia’s next NBA player, currently playing for collegiate powerhouse Duke University. Proctor is unlikely to get a sniff at selection given his inexperience, and the long list of guards he is up against, but definitely a player to watch for the future.

Thon Maker/William McDowell-White/Keanu Pinder - Three players who made Goorjian’s 18 man camp for the 2023 FIBA World Cup, but subsequently all saw a sizeable dip in their output at club level in 2023-24. McDowell-White has always faced an uphill battle to crack the Boomers’ back court rotation, while Pinder and Maker likely weren’t far off selection last year, but have struggled to press their case for Paris 2024 and beyond.

Predicted 12 man Boomers Roster - Paris Olympics 2024

Patty Mills (Atlanta Hawks)

Josh Giddey (Oklahoma City Thunder)

Joe Ingles (Orlando Magic)

Matisse Thybulle (Portland Trail Blazers)

Josh Green (Dallas Mavericks)

Dante Exum (Dallas Mavericks)

Duop Reath (Portland Trail Blazers)

Jock Landale (Houston Rockets)

Nick Kay (Shimane Susanoo Magic)

Dyson Daniels (New Orleans Pelicans)

Chris Goulding (Melbourne United)

Jack White (South Bay Lakers)/Xavier Cooks (Chiba Jets)