NBL: Top Five Offensive Players of the Year
A deep dive into the players who provided the most value on offence this season.
How is offence measured, when it comes to a single player?
Whilst numbers drive the offensive evaluation of a player, importantly, there still needs to be context applied — taking into account the individual’s specific role, how complementary they are to play with, and the pieces that are around them to make their job easier (or harder).
1. Bryce Cotton
After a jarring start to the season that had some pondering if his prime was ending, or at the very least the supporting cast was too ill-fitting, Cotton exploded to average 29 points per game over a 15 game stretch in the middle of the season. He dipped below 24 points just once in that block of games, putting Perth back into the contention bracket.
Playing a career-high 37.5 minutes a night, Cotton’s impact couldn’t be stronger, with his non-stop motor, scoring ability, and playmaking drawing mass attention and multiple bodies. That gravity has allowed Perth’s role players to find some necessary gaps to work in around him.
Cotton’s combination as an on-ball and also off-ball threat level, is the best in the league. He’s able to create confusion amongst defences when coming off of screens, relocating, or back cutting, as well as blow by or pull up on opponents when self-creating. He’s an elite shooter, with elite speed, and elite foul drawing capabilities — any indecision or error from the defence will be punished.
Any questions on his efficiency are quickly squashed when you factor in his league-leading 7.9 free throw attempts, as well as a low turnover rate. His ability to draw fouls and capitalise at the line juices his True Shooting Percentage up to a healthy 57%. Even with the playmaking load he carries for others, and the overall attention he draws, Cotton’s scored a seriously impressive 1.056 points per play this season — a mark that trails only Chris Goulding among guards in contention for this list.
Credit: JBC Studios
2. Parker Jackson-Cartwright
Jackson-Cartwright has been the main man behind the league’s number one rated half court offence. His speed made even the best defenders look slow at times this season, going end to end in record time, or simply blowing by guys one-on-one or zipping through gaps playing out of ball screens.
Despite his tiny stature, PJC still incredibly connected on a just above league-average 59% of his rim attempts, an ode to his speed, creativity, and skill level as a finisher. With William McDowell-White sidelined for a chunk of the season, his play diet tilted even more towards self creation than expected, leading the league in points via both pick and roll as well as isolation.
In his limited time without the ball in hand, where he obviously isn’t near the off-ball mover or cutter that Cotton is, he did perform strongly in nailing 49% of his spot up threes.
With 5.7 assists per game, PJC paired an elite scoring ability (20.2 points) with playmaking, a combination that was only rivalled by a handful of others. Of the top 30 players in assist-percentage, he ranked fifth in TS%, highlighting the strength of both parts of his game.
3. Anthony Lamb
Coming off 1200 NBA minutes in the 2022/23 season, Lamb’s class was immediately evident when he joined New Zealand, proving to be one of those perfect do-it-all type forwards for the NBL.
Going against front court players, he proved far too nimble and skilled, and against wings he could use his strength advantage to crush mismatches.
Outside of running pick and roll, Lamb really did everything, punishing guys with his one-on-one face up or back to the basket game inside the arc, coming off of screens or popping for triples as a movement shooter, and grabbing and going in transition. He was also a pretty credible passer for his position, with his 2.8 per game higher than fellow forwards Jack McVeigh, Mitch Creek, or Gary Clark.
Lamb’s efficiency was unreal, rivalled only by McVeigh and Goulding among high-volume scorers. With New Zealand’s half court offence at the top of the league, there’s a real case that he may have been able to legitimately contend for the top spot if he played a full season.
4. Jack McVeigh
The best offensive player on the best offensive team this season. Whilst Milton Doyle has the highest ceiling on the team, and Jordon Crawford too can self-create and play-make at a higher level, McVeigh’s 16.4 points at a far superior efficiency, and with such a complementary game, gets him this spot.
Tasmania has an adjusted offensive rating of 125 points per 100 possessions when McVeigh sees the floor, the highest number of any starter across the league. He’s the ideal partner for either of his guards to use in the ball-screen game, and the perfect front court teammate for the diving Will Magnay or Marcus Lee due to his floor spacing.
McVeigh is also a great target to throw the ball to in the post or for a face up drive, able to finish with either his left or right hand. He may not possess the most quick-twitch fibres or have the most size on his frame, but McVeigh is remarkably comfortable and effective scoring against a wide variety of defenders — he is crafty!
An improvement area this season has been with his finishing, with some gains being made with his athleticism, something he spoke about on his podcast earlier in the season. Throwing down what would certainly be a career-high in dunks, McVeigh has finished an incredible 71% of his rim attempts.
Whilst a relatively weak defensive rebounder for a power forward, he has contributed to Tasmania owning the number one offensive rebounding rate in the league, with McVeigh sitting around the top twenty for OREB per game.
5. Chris Goulding
Goulding has put together the most efficient shooting season of his career at age 35 — 61% true shooting and an effective field goal percentage of 58% — connecting on 40% of his 10 three-point attempts per game.
He might not have the on-ball capabilities of Cotton or Jackson-Cartwright, or the wider ranging skillset of Lamb, but he’s the most devastating off-ball shooter in the league. When you apply a minimum attempts threshold, his 1.254 PPP via hand offs is essentially only surpassed as a half court play by a rolling big man or a role player spotting up on the arc.
With his range and quick release, you can’t screw up your rotations or transition defence and allow him space to launch. Getting Goulding involved as the screener can also cause chaos with the defence so reluctant to leave him.
With Melbourne’s depth, particularly when Ian Clark has been available, Goulding hasn’t had to push himself to the limit every single night as much as the likes of Cotton or Jackson-Cartwright, but given how good he has looked, averaging 20-points per game could have been achieved, if he had to do so this season.
Honourable mentions
Gary Clark
After a slow start to the preseason and regular season, Clark’s form reached dizzying heights to close the campaign, landing third on my MVP ballot behind Cotton and Jackson-Cartwright. Without considering his superior defence to McVeigh and Goulding for the purposes of this list though, I’ve got him marginally outside of the top five.
Clark is an easy star to play alongside, with his shooting ability opening up space for Sam Froling inside the paint, as well as giving his guards room to penetrate. He runs the floor well, can quickly attack a closeout, and by the end of the season really established himself as a one-on-one scorer as well.
Mitch Creek
As I profiled last season, Creek’s evolution into an elite scorer has been amazing to watch and you could still mount a good argument for him to feature in the top five.
Creek’s playmaking dipped this season, down from four straight seasons between 2.9 to 3.6 assists per game, to just 1.8. His three-point attempts and transition plays also decreased, as did his free throw percentage. The Phoenix finished with the worst offensive rating in the league.
Still, despite a difficult team context to overcome, given South East Melbourne’s injuries and depth issues, Creek averaged an elite 21.1 points per game on efficiency (PPP) that was only bettered by a handful of high-volume players.
Jaylen Adams
Adams is as talented as anyone on this list, with his shot-making off the dribble, acrobatics at the rim, and passing at times, dazzling us throughout the season. He’s also an under the radar excellent cutter for a point guard, moving well into dangerous spots when spending limited time off the ball.
With his three-point shot not near the level it was in his debut season though (31% on 5.1 attempts compared to 40% on 7.6 attempts), his transition play not as devastating, and the Kings underachieving, Adams will have to settle for an honourable mention.
Nathan Sobey
Justin Schueller noted in the preseason his intent to get his main star downhill as much as possible, and that’s exactly what he’s done. Sobey finished the regular season attempting 6.0 shots at the rim and 6.9 free throws per game — both career highs. He’s still a sick athlete.
A polarising talent at times, due to his decision-making or shot selection, Sobey still remains one of the must-watch offensive talents every single night. He also deserves some leeway this season given the roster surrounding him. With the Bullets’ three imports and highest profile local combining(!) for just 30 points and 5.7 assists, as well as the team struggling from three-point range, the burden has often been on Sobey to provide enough scoring punch for the Bullets to have a chance.
Sobey’s highs were as good as anyone, but there were some lows and a tricky context for him to fight through. Shooting in the high-twenties from deep for the third season in a row meant it was difficult to be efficient enough to climb into the top five.
Others
I’ve mentioned Crawford and Doyle’s ability earlier. There’s also Dejan Vasiljevic, who looms as one to climb this list next season after showing off his pick and roll scoring ability and improved passing. Trey Kell and Isaac Humphries also had strong back halves of the season. Jo Lual-Acuil’s best games are elite, but with such a deep field of contenders, he loses out due to less minutes played and greater inconsistency. Patrick Miller averaging 19 and 6 deserves a shout out, though he was part of an awkward back court fit on an underwhelming offence in Cairns.