NBL free agency: The 5 most intriguing free agents to keep an eye on
Free agency is officially underway! Which names should you be keeping an eye on?
Credit: May Bailey Photography
Free agency is off with a… whimper?
Due to the pretty short gap between Sydney being crowned Kings of the NBL and the start of free agency, the offseason is off to an awfully slow start.
On the bright side, we’ve got a little bit more time to preview free agency than usual. With that extra time, it’s time to dive deep into the situations surrounding my five most intriguing free agents.
In this article, we’re talking about players who could realistically return to the NBL, but could change teams. I’m not interested in guys like Xavier Cooks and Jo Lual-Acuil, who are near certainties to stay with their respective teams if they don’t find a better offer overseas.
Let’s dive in.
Will McDowell-White
NBL22 was a tale of two seasons for Will McDowell-White. The Aussie guard came out of the blocks blisteringly hot — showing off a much improved jumper, whilst retaining all of the skills as a big guard that made him such an enticing prospect earlier in his career. Over his first 7 games, McDowell-White registered over 33 minutes per game and averaged 10.7 points, 4.7 rebounds, and 3.9 assists per contest, all while shooting over 43% from downtown, per Spatial Jam. Combine that with his excellent defensive impact, and his early-season brilliance made me call him a “legitimate NBA prospect” in December.
I didn’t use those words lightly, either. McDowell-White looked awesome over that early stretch. He looked far more aggressive as a scorer than he ever has, was playmaking with poise, defending his ass off, and shooting the lights out. As a 6’5’’ 24 year old point guard, NBA teams would have wanted him in Vegas for Summer League, had he played like that for the rest of the season. He’s the exact type of jumbo playmaker teams around the globe are clamouring for.
The problem was that he wasn’t able to continue that form. With the Breakers’ guard rotation back to full health, he averaged just 20 minutes a night for the remainder of the season. With three import guards to share the ball with, McDowell-White’s newfound aggression and shooting confidence evaporated. For the rest of the season, McDowell-White averaged less than 5 field goal attempts per contest and shot just 31.9% from deep, looking like a shell of the player that started the season.
Maybe I’m too optimistic, but I think the McDowell-White we saw over those first few weeks of the season still exists and could be unlocked for good by the right team in free agency.
The situation he was in with the Breakers this past season was far too weird to use as a yardstick for his actual ability. Through their recruitment, the Breakers basically did everything they could to undermine McDowell-White’s role on the team, even after his great start. Matt Walsh and company recruited three import guards (!) and minimal shooting to surround his ball handlers. It would be hard to build a team less suited to empowering McDowell-White if you tried.
The right McDowell-White team is out there somewhere, though. Contrary to how hard the Breakers made it look, it likely wouldn’t be too difficult to build a team that would get the best out of him. Surround him with enough shooting and a backcourt mate that doesn’t mind operating off the ball, and you’ve probably got all you need. McDowell-White’s unselfish play style and defensive versatility make him an easy fit into most lineups. You could easily pair him with a defensive turnstile and get away with it. For instance, how good would he look partnered next to Nathan Sobey in Brisbane? Their skill sets complement each other almost perfectly.
Whether it’s Brisbane or another team, all I want for McDowell-White is a team willing to empower him in the way that the Breakers never did. There’s a special player hiding in there somewhere. Let’s see a team unlock him.
Robert Franks
Imports don’t tend to change allegiances — they usually stick with their current side or ditch the league entirely. The only import who changed teams but still stuck around in the NBL last offseason was Vic Law.
Imports that change allegiances have to hit a sweet spot: they have to be good enough to have attracted the attention of other teams but not have shown off so much in the past season that they receive a huge offer from overseas. The guy who maybe fits that description most accurately this offseason is Robert Franks. Because of Brisbane’s lack of success, I’m not sure that fans fully understood how good Robert Franks was this past season. Even though he didn’t make either of the All-NBL teams due to a loaded group of frontcourt nominees, he was probably one of the league’s 10 best players.
Franks was likely the most versatile scoring weapon in the league last season. Take this for data: of the 11 play types listed on jordanmcnbl.com, Franks didn’t rank in the top five for frequency in any of them, despite averaging the fifth-most points per game league-wide. However, he ranked in the top 20 for frequency in seven of those 11 categories.
Franks has no truly defining feature as a scorer. He just kind of dabbles in everything. He’s happy to dart around like Clint Steindl in off-ball screening action to break free for triples and just as happy to bang with the big boys in the post. He’s equally capable of running a pick and roll as the ball-handler as he is screening and rolling as the big. The only bigs in the league to run more pick and rolls as the ball handler than him were Mitch Creek and Law, and Franks was significantly more efficient in that role than either of them.
Just on that efficiency — despite dabbling in everything and having a high usage this past season in Brisbane, Franks was somehow one of the most efficient scorers in the league. For one, he shot 39.1% on triples on 6 attempts per game. With that kind of efficiency, volume, and shooting versatility, it’s at least possible to make the case that Franks is straight up the best shooter in the league.
Looking more broadly, he ranked 6th in True Shooting percentage among those who played more than 300 minutes during the 2021-22 season, according to Spatial Jam. For reference, Jaylen Adams, Law, Bryce Cotton, and Creek — the only four players who ranked ahead of Franks in points per game — finished 13th, 22nd, 26th, and 28th, respectively, in that same metric.
That’s not to say that Franks is better than all of those guys, though — he’s not. Franks doesn’t do a lot else outside of score. He’s a pretty good defensive rebounder, but he’s just a so-so defender as a big and has no passing chops.
It’s because of that lack of doing the little stuff that Franks probably won’t go to significantly higher levels of basketball just yet. That’s not to say he doesn’t have those additional skills. On a more competitive team playing in games that actually matter and with better pieces around him, we might see more of those fringe skills come out.
In the NBL, it might not matter anyway. With his elite, highly versatile scoring ability, Franks is an absolute monster at this level. But there’s a whole extra level that Franks has yet to unlock. In the right situation, he could blossom into a megastar.
For that reason, richer teams should have Franks towards the top of their wish lists. At a minimum, he will come in and be one of the best, most versatile scorers in the league and fit in seamlessly into whatever your team wants to do offensively.
At the most, he could blossom into an MVP type of player.
Duop Reath
Reath is the most obvious name on this list. As a local on the NBA fringe, he’ll be sought after by just about every team in the league in a market that, as mentioned earlier in the month, is light on star-level locals. There’s already scuttlebutt surrounding the potential of him returning home to Perth. Meanwhile, Illawarra have already sent an offer his way.
It’s easy to see why he’ll be in such high demand — at his best this season, Reath showed MVP-type potential with his work on both ends. But that potential showed through frustratingly seldomly.
Still, his performance this past season was, on the whole, excellent and was incredibly important to a very good Hawks team. He proved he was one of the best shooting big men in the league (drilling over 40% of his three-point attempts). His gravity was a huge reason why Illawarra finished the season first in offensive efficiency and their halfcourt offence didn’t get stuck in the mud, even with a bunch of so-so shooters in the rotation. On the other end, once his effort level rose over the back end of the season, Illawarra’s defence quickly climbed up the ranks.
For these reasons, Illawarra would love to have him back, but I think Reath can probably find a better fit for his services in the NBL. Although Reath didn’t play to his potential for the entire season, Illawarra’s personnel didn’t exactly suit him perfectly.
On offence, Illawarra’s collection of poor shooters (Sam Froling, Antonius Cleveland, Xavier Rathan-Mayes) meant that Reath often had to park himself on the three-point line for Illawarra to generate enough spacing. Because of this, we didn’t really get to see what Reath could do as a roller in space. With his athleticism and ability to pop or roll, Reath could be a deadly pick and roll weapon for any team with enough shooting around him.
Because of Sam Froling’s lack of a three-point shot, opposing teams often decided to have their centres guard Froling and smaller options guard Reath. This created problems for Reath — he’s much more effective attacking slow-footed big men than attempting to post up smaller players down low. Reath scored just 0.78 points per chance in the post during the 2021-22 season, per jordanmcnbl.com — the worst mark of anyone who registered over 50 post possessions.
Defensively, I think Reath would benefit tremendously from having a group of guards better at fighting over ball screens. Outside of Cleveland, Illawarra’s point of attack defence was pretty rubbish this past season. In building around Tyler Harvey, the Hawks’ point of attack defence will likely continue to be below par. Illawarra’s lack of strong on-ball defenders meant that they shuffled through defensive schemes all year and had to rely on their big men to defend further away from the basket than they would’ve liked. Reath would probably benefit tremendously by having his defensive role simplified next season, and that starts with having greater help at the point of attack.
I’m not sure if that ideal situation exists in the NBL. Still, teams should be trying to find ways to make that situation a reality. Star locals like Reath are in short supply this offseason. Teams should be doing everything they can to make their rosters palatable to Reath and fully unearth the superstar he can be.
Peyton Siva
After jetting back to Europe directly after his dysfunctional stint with the Breakers ended, Siva feels way less likely than Franks to return back to the NBL. Still, he fits the criteria of an import who was awesome, but wasn’t so incredible that he’ll be fielding huge offers from all over the shop.
Moreover, to me, Siva actually was incredible during the 2021-22 season. Yet, the Breakers’ lack of success and Siva’s lack of raw scoring production compared to his fellow import guards masked that. To my eye, the public perception of Siva’s 2021-22 season seemed to be far lower than it should’ve been. Any team who paid especially close attention to what Siva was doing for the Breakers should seriously consider offering him a boatload of cash.
Coming into the season, I expected Siva to be awesome defensively, but I’m not sure I was ready for just how good he’d be on that end. He’s an absolute monster at the point of attack — he rarely gets phased by on-balls and is as pesky and prodding as they come. He led the league in steal percentage by a not-insignificant margin, per Spatial Jam.
More impressively, he was beyond brilliant when switching. Despite a lack of competent defensive options, the Breakers switched a ton. It was largely because of Siva’s remarkable ability to hold up against dudes a foot taller than him that they didn’t look incredibly stupid whilst doing so.
Here are a few highlights from just two games of him annoying the absolute crap out of Goliaths:
That guy is 6’0’’, making the lives of Robert Franks, Duop Reath, and the Froling brothers hell.
On offence, don’t let Siva’s lack of raw scoring production fool you — he was super valuable on that end, too. He didn’t post supremely efficient shooting numbers, but a lot of that can be attributed to the aforementioned troubling Breakers roster construction that lacked spacing and forced Siva to take a bunch of tough shots every game. And even then, Siva’s shooting remained of paramount importance to the Breakers’ offence, and his True Shooting percentage of 53% isn’t too far off league average.
Scoring isn’t even Siva’s best skill on offence, either — passing is, and boy did Siva show off that gift in spades with the Breakers. Siva’s manipulation of defences, changes of pace, and veteran vision make him one of the best distributors in the league.
Even though he played on an understrength team with too many other on-ball guards, Siva finished the year with the fifth-best assist percentage in the league. The only players ahead of him in that ranking were given a lot more on-ball responsibility than Siva, who, because of the Breakers’ roster construction, had to play off-ball a lot more than he would’ve liked.
Siva’s value offensively may not be reflected in the points per game charts but is reflected by the advanced numbers. According to Spatial Jam, Offensive Box Plus-Minus had him rated as the fifth-best offensive player in the league.
Zooming out at both sides of the ball, Siva had the fourth-highest plus-minus differential per 36 in the league, per jordanmcnbl.com.
By all accounts, Siva actually had an awesome 2021-22 season. It’s possible that because of how the Breakers’ season played out, Siva’s market value isn’t where it deserves to be.
NBL teams should be circling him like vultures — he’s a title-swinging talent hiding in plain sight. There are few, if any, teams around the league that shouldn’t be begging Siva’s agent for a meeting and praying that his experience with the Breakers hasn’t made him wary of returning to down under.
Wani Swaka Lo Buluk
OK, I’m cheating here.
Swaka Lo Buluk has already changed allegiances and signed with the Illawarra Hawks. Still, he would have made this list, had I written this a week earlier. Additionally, his signing with the Hawks is so interesting that I have to talk about it here.
Despite not being as good as players I’ve left off this article, Swaka Lo Buluk makes this list because at just 20 years old, he possesses a unique blend of untapped upside and present day value.
At his young age, Swaka Lo Buluk averaged the fourth most minutes on a title-winning team. More to the point, he played an absolutely critical role on that championship squad.
In Sydney’s defensive scheme, he was tasked with guarding the opposition’s best perimeter player and hounding them over ball screens and into the path of Sydney’s drop coverage big. In the Kings’ scheme, that job was ludicrously important. In spite of coming in as an injury replacement, Swaka Lo Buluk thrived in that crucial role and helped to vault the Kings up the defensive efficiency charts.
By season’s end, that role seemed tailor made for him. I assumed he’d re-sign almost straight away and make that role his own. Swaka Lo Buluk went from out of the league to a starter on a championship-winning team — with that context, I’d think that almost anyone would want to play it safe and stick around.
Wani clearly doesn’t want to play it safe, though.
In joining the Hawks he’ll be going to a team that played basically no drop coverage last season. It's also unclear if Swaka Lo Buluk will be guaranteed starter-level minutes like he was in Sydney. After talking for much of this article about the importance team-fit for players, Swaka Lo Buluk is risking a ton by leaving a great situation that perfectly suited his specific skill set for one where nothing is guaranteed.
What we can gather from this is that Wani clearly has bigger ambitions than being a role player on a great team. He wants to spread his wings and take on more responsibility on both sides of the ball.
Defensively in Illawarra, in a completely different scheme, he’ll likely have to do a lot more than just chase guards over screens at the point of attack and will be able to show off any burgeoning defensive versatility he’s got. On offence, there’s a chance that he’ll be able to do more with the ball in his hands. Had he stayed in Sydney, Swaka Lo Buluk would’ve likely spent the next season parked in the corner every possession once more. With a different system and likely less proven offensive talent around him, he might get to show off some of the shot creation ability he showed at lower levels that made him an incredibly intriguing prospect a couple of years ago.
At just 20 years of age, Swaka Lo Buluk is probably right to take this risk. After establishing himself as a good NBL role player last season, he was clearly looking for the best place to take the next step in his development. Illawarra seems like a good spot for that.