Looking ahead to the Boomers and the Group of Death at the Paris Olympics

As the Boomers prepare for the so-called "Group of Death" at Paris, it's the perfect time to take a look at the teams they'll be facing.

Spain

FIBA world ranking: 2

Roster: Alex Abrines, Santi Aldama, Dario Brizuela, Lorenzo Brown, Alberto Diaz, Rudy Fernandez, Usman Garuba, Juancho Hernangomez, Willy Hernangomez, Sergio Llull, Xabi Lopez Arostegui, Jaime Pradilla

vs Boomers: Saturday July 27, 7:00 PM AEST

Spain has long been a thorn in the side of the Boomers, and the two rivals will come together once again to open the Olympic tournament. For Australian fans, that could dredge up some uncomfortable memories. Who could forget the bronze medal game at the 2016 Olympics in Rio, where our hearts were broken with one late whistle? Or the semi-final of the World Cup three years later that saw the Boomers crash out in double-overtime, then fall short of a medal once again?

This clash looms as a fork in the road for the Boomers – either another bout of regret, or some long-awaited revenge. On the surface, Spain is as vulnerable as they’ve been in a long time, coming off a World Cup campaign last year where they entered as defending champions but missed the quarter-finals for the first time since 1994. The bulk of their “golden generation” has departed, with only four players remaining from their 2019 World Cup triumph; both Hernangomez brothers play larger roles now, with Rudy Fernandez (39 years old) and Sergio Llull (36) the elder statesmen.

Still, they will head to Paris battle-hardened and with some confidence after winning their way through the Olympic Qualifying Tournament in Valencia. Some results there were less than convincing – they couldn't quite shake Angola before ultimately winning by eight, and they trailed at three-quarter time against a Finland team without Lauri Markkanen – but the final against the Bahamas was a genuine test that they were able to pass. They followed that up with a narrow friendly win over Argentina, and their final tuneup will come this week against Puerto Rico, providing a good indicator after Australia’s win over the same opponent on Saturday.

There’s still plenty to like about this squad, with some high-level players and talent in every position. Willy Hernangomes, Usman Garuba, and Santi Aldama present one of the more imposing and challenging big man matchups in the tournament, while Alex Abrines joins the squad after missing the Qualifying Tournament through injury and will add more punch on the perimeter. The battle around the basket will be crucial for a Boomers team that has struggled to rebound the ball at times in their preparation games.

Player to watch: Santi Aldama

Spain is approaching the end of a transition from one era to the next, and Aldama could be set to emerge as the new face of the program. The 23-year-old missed the team’s winning run at EuroBasket 2022, and while they struggled as a whole at last year’s World Cup he was a solid contributor, averaging 11.2 points and a block per game as part of an equal opportunity rotation where 11 of their 12 players logged more than 14 minutes per game, but none more than 22.

That approach clearly didn’t work, and so coach Sergio Scariolo threw it out the window at the Olympic Qualifying Tournament. Almada was the biggest beneficiary, playing a team-high 26.5 minutes per game, and he rewarded Scariolo’s faith in him with a brilliant performance across the tournament. He averaged 17 points and led the team in rebounds (8.0) and blocks (1.8) per game, all while shooting 58.1% from the field and 45% from three. It was no surprise to see him named MVP of the event, as he dominated in all facets and led Spain to an undefeated record. That was just the latest big step in Aldama’s career, after he started 35 games for the Grizzlies last season flashed his ceiling with five games of 20-plus points. 

Aldama looms as a tricky matchup for the Boomers, with his size and shooting ability a rare combination. Despite standing at six-foot-eleven, he was just as comfortable on the perimeter as he was around the basket during the Qualifying Tournament. When he’s at the four, he’ll be a nightmare around the basket for the likes of Nick Kay and Jack McVeigh; when he slides over to the five, he’ll be able to drag Australia’s rim protectors away from the basket and onto the perimeter.

Key matchup: Willy Hernangomez vs Jock Landale

The second member of Spain’s super-sized frontline, Hernangomez is an established star on the international stage. The MVP of Eurobasket 2022 was also Spain’s leading scorer at last year’s World Cup, and he earned All-Star Five honours in Valencia after averaging a team-high 18.3 points in just 20.7 minutes per game. While most NBA fans would remember him as a serviceable big man and a bruiser in the paint, he is much more than that when he pulls on the national team jersey. 

Sound familiar? Jock Landale is another centre whose game is compressed and condensed in the NBA, but properly unleashed in FIBA play. He played just 13.6 minutes per game for Houston last season after missing the World Cup with an ankle injury, but he sent a reminder of what he can do in Australia’s warmup clash with the United States, finishing with 20 points, seven rebounds and six assists against a star-studded American front line.

Both Hernangomez and Landale are more than happy to mix it up with some physical play, but both also have a high level of skill and versatility in their game. Most importantly, both loom as a centrepiece for their teams and a key to their chances of success in the tournament. That they go head-to-head to open the tournament seems fitting, and whoever comes out on top could spark a deep run for their team.

Canada

FIBA World Ranking: 7

Roster: Nickeil Alexander-Walker, RJ Barrett, Khem Birch, Dillon Brooks, Luguentz Dort, Melvin Ejim, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Trey Lyles, Jamal Murray, Andrew Nembhard, Kelly Olynyk, Dwight Powell

vs Boomers: Tuesday July 30, 9:30 PM AEST

It will be a long-awaited return to the Olympic stage for Canada’s men’s team, qualifying for the tournament for the first time since 2000. It was a remarkable run of mediocrity given their basketball pedigree. Prior to last year’s bronze medal at the FIBA World Cup, their only international medal came at the first Olympic tournament in 1936 – but the tide has well and truly turned. That process started with a three-year commitment from much of the country’s NBA contingent, and it could end with glory in Paris.

They’re certainly preparing like a team with medal aspirations, with warmup games against heavyweight contenders Team USA and France already in the books. They won the first quarter against the Americans but quickly fell in a hole and suffered a comfortable loss, but bounced back to beat France in Orleans. That game showed exactly what makes them so dangerous – NBA talents Dillon Brooks, Lu Dort, Dwight Powell, Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Trey Lyles combined for just 14 points on 3-16 shooting, and yet they still claimed a double-digit win over one of the pre-tournament favourites. That was thanks to a depth of talent that, outside of a stacked US squad, is unmatched.

They’ve sought continuity over the last few years and it has paid off in spades, with eight of last year’s medal-winning squad of 12 returning. Those four changes make them even more dangerous, with Denver point guard Jamal Murray and rising Pacers star Andrew Nembhard adding plenty of star power. They push the tally to 10 current NBA players, and with MVP runner-up Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leading the way, Team Canada comes into the tournaments with high expectations and an even higher ceiling.

Stylistically, they’re a good opponent for the Boomers. With that heavy NBA influence across the roster and Brooklyn Nets head coach Jordi Fernandez leading the way, they play at a fast pace and a reliance on high-level shot making. That suits an Australian team that wants to get stops and get out and run as much as possible, and if they can force mistakes and get Canada out of their rhythm, then they’ll have a puncher’s chance. That’s a big if, though, against a team with so much individual talent at their disposal.

Player to watch: Dillon Brooks

It’s tempting to describe Brooks as the most divisive player in world basketball, but can that really be true of a player so universally hated? It feels a little unfair how much criticism the Houston Rockets wing cops – in a world full of bland personalities and cookie cutter press conferences, he’s willing to be the villain and ham it up to the extreme.

Beyond all of that, he proved at last year’s World Cup that he is a force to be reckoned with in FIBA play. As Canada made a historic run and claimed the bronze medal, he averaged 15.1 points per game while knocking down almost 60% of his threes and regularly locking down the opposition’s best player. His performance against the United States was a masterpiece on so many levels – he poured in 39 points, went 7-8 from deep, and simultaneously received loud boos and MVP chants from the crowd.

The likes of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jamal Murray would be the obvious choices here, but they’re known commodities and consistent presences. Brooks is the ultimate wildcard, and a strong performance from him could be a backbreaker for the Boomers. As an added bonus, if he finds himself matched up on Australia’s resident trash talker Joe Ingles then there’s sure to be fireworks.

Key matchup: Dyson Daniels vs Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

In the heated debate of Matisse Thybulle vs Dyson Daniels, it was the on-ball defence of Daniels that was pointed to as his point of difference. He’s been outstanding through Australia’s warmup games, but this matchup is where the Boomers will really need him to stand up and deliver.

Gilgeous-Alexander has emerged as one of the sport’s elite talents over the last two years, dominating NBA games in a way that seems almost effortless. That translated to the FIBA game as he made his World Cup debut last year, earning All-Tournament honours as he led Canada to a breakthrough medal and Olympic qualification. Averages of 24.5 points, 6.4 rebounds, 6.4 assists and 1.6 steals were impressive enough, but shooting 63.1% from two-point range tells even more of a story — he was able to slither and slide to his spots with ease, and then finish at a remarkably high clip once there.

The Oklahoma City star struggled in limited minutes against Team USA last week, but he was right back at it in Canada’s next game against France, scoring 23 points with an array of floaters, jump shots and shifty moves as they knocked off the host country. That can’t be allowed to happen if the Boomers hope to spring an upset, and so Daniels will have plenty of weight on his shoulders. The freshly-traded Atlanta Hawk may be as well-equipped to handle that as anyone in the world, with injuries and inconsistent offence robbing him of the chance to show his defensive chops more in the NBA. 

Just as Gilgeous-Alexander glides across the floor with ball in hand, Daniels moves with incredible fluidity when guarding the ball handler, staying stuck to them like glue at all times. After facing off with the likes of Steph Curry and Jose Alvarado in Australia’s preparation games, and often picking them up full court, he should be ready and raring to go for this next challenge.

Credit: FIBA

Greece

FIBA World Ranking: 14

vs Boomers: Friday August 2, 9:30 PM

Roster: Kostas Papanikolaou, Nick Calathes, Giannoulis Larentzakis, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Georgios Papagiannis, Konstantinos "Dinos" Mitoglou, Thomas Walkup, Kostas Antetokounmpo, Vassilis Charalampopoulos, Dimitris Moraitis, Panagiotis Kalaitzakis, Vassilis Toliopoulos

Much like Canada, Greece will end a significant drought when they hit the court in Paris, with their last Olympic appearance coming in 2008. Back-to-back fifth-place finishes there and on home soil in 2004 sat either side of a remarkable silver medal at the 2006 World Cup, but while those results showed a team on the rise, they’ve failed to hit those heights in the years since. Even the presence of Giannis Antetokounmpo, a rare NBA superstar that jumps at every opportunity to represent his country, hasn’t been enough to take them to the next level. 

They’ll head to Paris in red-hot form, though, having won through the Olympic Qualifying Tournament in Piraeus earlier this month in dominant fashion. Their average winning margin there was 22 points, beating talented teams from the Dominican Republic, Egypt, Slovenia and Croatia, and Giannis was named tournament MVP in an ominous warning to the Boomers and the rest of Group A.

They might lack NBA star power beyond Giannis, but Επίσημη Αγαπημένη are far from a one-man show. Nick Calathes is one of the greatest guards in EuroLeague history; Thomas Walkup has won Best Defensive Player honours in five different professional leagues; Georgios Pappagiannis is a seven-foot-two behemoth with NBA pedigree; and Kostas Antetokounmpo has followed up his 2020 NBA title with championships in France, Greece, and the EuroLeague.

Beyond that, the game plan is clear – surround Giannis with shooters and let his gravitational pull do the rest. They shot 31 threes per game in the Qualifying Tournament and hit them at a 43.5% clip, piling on almost 95 points per game as a result. Australia’s switch-heavy defence will be put to the test; if they’re caught a split second behind, they’ll be punished.

Player to watch: Nick Calathes

Australian fans might remember Calathes from his cup of coffee in the NBA, spending two seasons with the Grizzlies almost a decade ago, but he’s so much more than that. His resume in Europe is ridiculous – 17 titles in various league and cup competitions, three straight MVP awards in the Greek Basket League, two All-EuroLeague First Team selections, and the most assists and steals in EuroLeague history, among countless other accolades. At 35 years of age he’s still going strong, leading the Turkish BSL with 7.8 assists per game last year as his Fenerbahçe team won the title.

He’s also been a staple of the Greek national team, playing more than 100 games across all competitions. His efforts at the Olympic Qualifying Tournament, helping to lead Greece back to the pinnacle, might have been his most impressive showing yet. In a group stacked with guard talent – Luka Doncic, Chris Duarte, Shea Ili, and Mario Hezonja, among others – he shone the brightest, averaging a double-double with 10 points and 10.5 assists per game. Even more remarkable was his efficiency in doing so – across four games, he tallied 42 assists and just six turnovers, playing with pace and flair but making almost no mistakes.

Giannis is clearly the centrepiece of this team, but they need to be able to punish defences that collapse in on him. Calathes is the perfect player to have at the helm, a cerebral playmaker that can beat his man, find shooters on the perimeter, spot lob opportunities at the rim, and give away nothing free to the opposition. 

Key matchup: Giannis Antetokounmpo vs Nick Kay

There’s almost no one in the world that can guard Giannis Antetokounmpo one on one. A six-foot-eleven mountain of muscle, he has the strength of a centre and the mobility of a guard all rolled into one. His lack of shooting ability has long been criticised, but it almost never holds him back as he’s able to overpower the best defenders in the NBA time and time again. It was business as usual in the Olympic Qualifying Tournament, where he averaged 22.7 points in just 22.5 minutes per game to lead Greece back to the Olympics.

With all of that in mind, it would be unfair to expect Nick Kay to stop him entirely. Heck, Kay probably can’t even slow him down on his own. The Shimane Susanoo Magic star has always punched above his weight, though, and he’ll likely be the first point of contact with the two-time NBA MVP. He shouldn’t be overawed after guarding LeBron James in Australia’s warmup clash with the United States, where he helped to hold the NBA’s all-time leading scorer to just ten points on 3-8 shooting.

Kay came under fire for his performance at last year’s World Cup, particularly on the defensive end, but that was largely when he was switched onto quick and shifty guards. He’s at his best in the bash and crash around the basket, using his strength and positioning to disrupt and shift bigger and stronger opponents. If he can hold his own in this matchup, or at least funnel Antetokounmpo towards Australia’s rim protectors in Magnay and Landale, then it would be a huge win for the Boomers. He’s far from Greece’s only threat, but finding a way to nullify him would be a huge step towards a win.