Four horse race: Who's the NBL title favourite at the quarter pole?
Four horse race: Who's the NBL title favourite at the quarter pole?
Despite a heavily disrupted opening few rounds, we’re starting to get an idea of where each team stands in relation to the title race.
Credit: JBC Studios
To say that COVID-19 has disrupted the 2021-22 NBL season is an understatement. Between New Year’s and the start of round seven, the NBL essentially went on a two-week hiatus as the league struggled to figure out how they were going to deal with Omicron.
Unlike the NBA, the NBL doesn't have the luxury of 17-man rosters and a deep pool of replacement players ready and able to step in at a moment's notice. To state the obvious, the NBL also doesn't have 30 teams — one of the 10 NBL teams going out of action makes scheduling rounds an almost impossible mission.
And yet, the NBL has found a way to get back underway. After the first five games of a loaded round seven, the NBL has now completed a smidge under a quarter of its 2021-22 games. With that pseudo-milestone on the horizon, I think there's now enough evidence for us to have a moderately clear picture of the league's hierarchy in our heads.
The picture forming in my head is led by four clearcut title contenders — Perth, Illawarra, Melbourne, and South East Melbourne. There's not a whole hell of a lot separating those teams. If the NBL manages to make it to the end of the season, we could be in for a dead set classic title race, with so little to separate the league's upper echelon.
But how do those four teams stack up? What should we take from their play thus far? Most importantly, in such a competitive league, who should be regarded as the title favourite at this juncture?
On the outside looking in
Before breaking down my inner circle of title contenders, it’s worth briefly mentioning why I’m not ready to add any other teams to that group of four just yet.
For starters, few would disagree that the JackJumpers, Breakers, and 36ers are nowhere near this discussion. As the great Andrew Price noted, the Breakers have looked significantly more competent with Peyton Siva in the lineup, but at 2-6 and with a deeply flawed roster, their top four chances remain remarkably slim.
(Sidenote: Make sure to sign up for Andrew’s Spatial Jam+! Regular readers will know that the work I do on here wouldn’t be possible without the data Andrew provides on his site. If you’re a diehard Aussie hoops fan, the data provided is more than worth the monthly subscription fee and will increase your understanding of the NBL significantly. For more info, check out Andrew’s Twitter thread here.)
Further north, the Taipans have started well, but I don’t think they’ve got the talent level necessary to sustain a legitimate top four challenge deep into the season.
Brisbane and Sydney have better cases to be in the core four of title contenders. Both teams have the talent to challenge for a top four spot. However, they haven’t quite shown enough to prove that they’re serious title contenders so far.
The Kings were my preseason title pick, but with an unreasonable amount of bad injury luck, they’ve struggled to find any cohesion. That lack of cohesion is found especially on the offensive end, where they rank dead last in offensive efficiency. I still believe in Sydney’s talent and roster design, but I’ll need to see them get healthy, get above .500, and see how they go about replacing RJ Hunter before I have any sort of confidence labelling them as title contenders.
Brisbane, meanwhile, have just been too inconsistent to allow me to slot them alongside the likes of Perth and Melbourne. On the one hand, they’ve knocked off Perth in Perth, Illawarra, and South East Melbourne. On the other, they have tripped up against the Breakers at home and the JackJumpers on opening night. They’ve yet to win back-to-back games. Their inconsistency has balanced out their numbers — they’re 3-3 with the league’s fifth-ranked offensive efficiency and sixth-best defensive rating. They’re the Jerry Seinfeld of the NBL. Before I talk about the Bullets alongside the other title contenders, I want to see them put together at least a couple of good performances in a row.
Credit: Michelle Couling Photography
4. South East Melbourne Phoenix
The Phoenix may be 3-2, but their start hasn't exactly been inspiring. They feasted on the hapless Breakers and a Goulding-less Melbourne United to open the season but have since lost to the banged up Kings and were blown out by Brisbane.
Still, with a healthy record and arguably the most talented roster in the league, they belong in the inner circle of title contenders at this stage.
Their overwhelming talent level once again has them near the top of the league in offensive efficiency (ranking second, behind only Perth). However, with an offensive rating of 111.1 — a mark over four points worse than last year — they may feel disheartened, given that they are the only team in the league shooting above 35% from downtown at present.
As mentioned a fortnight ago, offensive efficiency league-wide has fallen off a cliff, in large part due to a league-wide decline in three-point shooting. South East Melbourne don’t have that excuse at their disposal for their decline in offensive rating.
Shooting averages around the league outside of South East Melbourne should go up as the season goes on. If they do, South East Melbourne could easily slip down the offensive rankings unless they figure out how to harness their immense talent level to improve their offensive output.
That all starts with deciphering how best to use Ryan Broekhoff. The talk of the Phoenix figuring how to use Broekhoff more effectively during the offseason was clearly overstated. I bet I could count the amount of times he’s dribbled this season on one hand. At present, he’s a low volume spot up shooter who’s made less than a fifth of his three-point attempts to date. They’re getting basically nothing out of him. It shouldn’t be this hard to figure out how to integrate an NBA-level talent like Broekhoff into an offence.
Should they fail to improve their offensive output, the Phoenix are vulnerable to falling out of the top four altogether as rival teams’ shooting percentages turn around. Simply put, their defence isn’t nearly good enough for this team to win with a non-elite offence. South East Melbourne currently rank a ghastly eighth in defensive efficiency. Like last year, there is a glaring lack of defensively impact makers on this team. According to Spatial Jam, just two players (Zhou Qi and Dane Pineau) on the team have posted a positive Defensive Box Plus-Minus.
On the other hand, the addition of Brandon Ashley should help them out on the defensive end. His versatility on that end should make the Phoenix more formidable. Moreover, with his ability to stroke it from long range, he should allow the Phoenix to deploy double-big lineups with Ashley at the four. The additional size those lineups bring should help to bolster South East Melbourne’s defensive numbers.
Given what they’ve shown so far and the question marks on either end of the floor, the path to becoming a title-winning team seems harder for South East Melbourne than for the other three teams on this list.
And yet, their startling talent level still demands that you take them seriously. With the core of Xavier Munford, Mitch Creek, Zhou Qi, and Broekhoff surrounded by a variety of solid role players, they should be in the mix deep into the season.
Credit: Russell Freeman Photography
3. Illawarra Hawks
As flagged in my last article, Illawarra are basically the inverse of the team that they were a year ago.
Last year, Goorj’s men stormed into the top four on the back of a second-ranked defence and the league’s worst offence. This season, they rank third in offence and seventh in defence.
Their recruitment during the offseason honed in on making their offence harder to guard. They’ve succeeded on that front — the additions of Xavier Rathan-Mayes, Duop Reath, Harry Froling, and Antonius Cleveland have gotten Illawarra’s offence humming. However, their recruitment also downgraded their defensive talent level and has made their frontcourt rotation bigger and slower. It’s been noticeably easier for teams to poke holes in their schemes than it was last year.
Unlike with the Phoenix, though, there’s a baseline level of competency that I trust the Hawks to reach defensively game-to-game, courtesy of Goorj. For instance, Illawarra rank above South East Melbourne in defensive rebounding percentage and opponent free throw rate, per Spatial Jam.
On the other end of the court, some may question whether their third-ranked offence is, in fact, the real deal. After all, there are some somewhat troubling signs. For one, they have by far the lowest assist rate in the league. Admittedly, assist rate doesn’t really correlate with offensive rating. Still, it is slightly concerning that Illawarra’s assist percentage is nearly 7% lower than any other team.
Additionally, they’re very reliant on their transition attack to generate buckets — per jordanmcnbl.com, their halfcourt offence is scoring at a rate just barely above the league average efficiency. If their defence continues to regress and their transition opportunities begin to dry up as a result, their lofty ranking in offensive rating may be temporary.
Alternatively, there are reasons to be optimistic about the Hawks’ offensive outlook. It seems like Goorj is still scratching the surface with the types of lineups he can throw out with his increased firepower. For example, the potentially devastating Harvey/Rathan-Mayes/Jessup/Cleveland/Reath fivesome has played just 16 possessions through six games. Goorj should be more willing to deploy dangerous small ball lineups such as these as he grows more comfortable with his personnel.
More pressingly, Tyler Harvey’s shooting should come around at some point. Harvey has made just 31.6% of his 9.5 three-point attempts per game through six games. Last season, Harvey drilled over 37% of his threes on lesser volume. With more playmaking around him making life easier for him than last season, Harvey’s efficiency should tick up.
Although I have my doubts, Illawarra certainly seem like a safe playoff team. But with question marks on both sides of the ball, I’m not ready to put them in the same bracket as my title favourite. Still, I think their performances to date have shown more than South East Melbourne’s and they deserve to be viewed as a top three team.
Credit: May Bailey Photography
2. Melbourne United
Confession time: After seeing Mitch McCarron, Jock Landale, and Scotty Hopson depart, I picked Melbourne to miss the top four.
I had them fifth in my preseason power rankings. I then doubled down after round one, essentially writing a eulogy for their season on the back of seeing Sydney duck under picks for Delly for 40 minutes.
With eight games of evidence to sift through, I’m now ready to admit it: Melbourne are just flat out good. Again.
It’s easy to understand why I doubted them, though. Landale and McCarron are studs and were the two cornerstones of their defensive success last season. I anticipated that they would take a slight backward step on that end after finishing last season first in defensive efficiency. Instead, they've vaulted to new heights on defence. They are currently allowing a ridiculous 6 points per 100 possessions less than any other team, per Spatial Jam. Their defence is approaching historic levels of brilliance.
Realistically, I should have seen this coming. Under Vickerman, Melbourne have never finished lower than second in defensive rating. He’s a freaking wizard on that end of the court. Additionally, I was focused so much on their losses that I neglected to analyse their additions.
Matthew Dellavedova has filled McCarron’s defensive shoes and then some. He is making life hell for opposing guards. Meanwhile, the signing of Caleb Agada has given Vickerman another bulldog of a defender at the point of attack.
The loss of Landale has hurt Melbourne’s defensive versatility, but has allowed them to fully unleash Jo Lual-Acuil as a rim protecting force. Opponents are making just half of their field goal attempts at the rim against United. That's around 8% lower than the league average.
While United's defensive brilliance was somewhat predictable, few would’ve predicted that Melbourne would rank fourth in offensive efficiency a quarter of the way through the season.
But even after losing McCarron, Hopson, and Landale, that’s exactly what they’ve done.
My early concerns surrounding Delly’s lack of a reliable jump shot have been mitigated by his aggression in getting to the rim and the presence of the league’s best shooter next to him in the backcourt. Oh, and for good measure, he randomly hit seven threes against Illawarra the other day.
Caleb Agada, Jo Lual-Acuil, Shea Ili, and Chris Goulding have given them just enough shot creation in the halfcourt to give them a competitive offence. Their mark of 0.88 points per possession in the halfcourt is just a hair below the league average. For reference, I expected them to have one of the two or three worst halfcourt offences.
More importantly, with their astoundingly excellent defence, they’re getting out in transition a bunch. Jack White getting back up to speed will only increase the prevalence and dominance of their transition attack.
United have looked like the best team in the league during their six game-winning streak. Nevertheless, I don’t have them first in these rankings. Ultimately, I think one team is slightly more complete and is a safer bet at this point.
1. Perth Wildcats
The Wildcats are far from perfect. They’re nowhere near the level of title favourite that Melbourne United were last season. Nonetheless, I feel by far the most comfortable labelling them, as opposed to any of the other three on this list, as the definitive title favourites at this juncture.
Between Vic Law and Bryce Cotton, they’re close to unguardable on offence. Despite shooting just 32.8% from downtown as a team (which is more down to bad luck than anything else), they rank first in offensive efficiency by some distance.
Coach Scott Morrison has done an excellent job of getting Vic Law and Bryce Cotton involved in the same actions and utilising their gravity to make life easier for one another. These excellent looks for Vic Law out of ‘horns’ against Brisbane, for instance, were made significantly easier due to the attention Bryce Cotton draws as a screener.
The Law-Cotton combination is working as well as anyone could’ve hoped for. It’s easy to argue that they’ve been the two best players in the entire league so far. Moreover, they don’t get in each other’s way at all and complement each other delightfully well.
To make life even scarier for the rest of the league, Perth have been far from healthy to start the season. Todd Blanchfield has barely played, Mitch Norton and Matt Hodgson have only just returned from injury, and Michael Frazier is still figuring out where he fits in on this team, after early injury troubles.
The Wildcats are thriving on offence despite having had to play the likes of Kyle Zunic and Kevin White for unreasonably long stretches. Add a fit and firing Blanchfield, Norton, Hodgson, and a fully integrated Frazier into this offence and Perth should extend their sizeable margin atop the offensive efficiency charts.
I’m less convinced that their defence will retain its place near the top of the defensive rating rankings. Currently, they rank third, despite the aforementioned Norton (a Defensive Player of the Year finalist last season) missing all but one game.
Part of their success defensively stems from luck — opponents are shooting 8% and 3% below the league average from three and the rim, respectively, when playing Perth. I don’t expect those figures to hold.
That being said, with Norton coming back into the fold, Hodgson adding some more rim protection, and Travers continuing to evolve as a defensive force, Perth should maintain, at minimum, a top-half defence deep into the season.
Pair that with the league’s best offence by far, and you’ve got yourself the recipe for a title favourite. I have them above United at the moment purely because I trust Perth’s defence more than Melbourne’s offence. Perth’s offence and Melbourne’s defence are more or less as elite as each other, but I think that at this point, Perth are likely the better two-way team.
They’re not perfect, but it’s difficult to deny that Perth have flexed the most championship muscle in this year’s NBL.