Early predictions for the 2023-24 NBL awards

The NBL season is just a few days away. It's the perfect time to cast an eye over the league once more, and look at the players set to take over the league.

Next Generation Award: Luke Travers, Melbourne United

Gone are the days of the old-fashioned Rookie of the Year award, at least in the NBL. Midway through last season, the league chose to scrap the prize in favour of a new “Next Generation Award”, aiming to simplify eligibility criteria while still recognising the league’s best young talent. That was a good move given the vague and often-changing rules around the “rookie” designation, which saw candidates unexpectedly appear or be ruled out every season.

Now, it’s much simpler. As outlined when the change was announced, all players under the age of 25 at April 30 of the year of conclusion of the relevant season are eligible to win the Next Generation Award. While 25 feels a little high for the age threshold — a 21-year-old college returnee like Taran Armstrong, for example, could theoretically win the award three times if he stayed in the league — the field is now much clearer.

With all of that taken into consideration, Luke Travers jumps out as a serious contender once again. After finishing third in voting for the inaugural award last season, a change of teams and some more personal development have him primed to make another leap in NBL24.

As Travers told The Pick and Roll’s Michael Houben, his move to Melbourne brings a welcome change of scenery outside of basketball. There’ll be even more change on the court — after playing mostly as a three with Perth, and spending stints as the nominal point guard, Travers will start at the four for United. It’s a role that launched Jack White into the NBA after his stint with Melbourne, and while Travers is a very different player, it would be no surprise to see him thrive in a similar fashion.

Speaking in April when his signing was first announced, Travers said he was looking forward to playing “that Xavier Cooks role”. There are certainly some similarities between the two; standing at six-foot-eight but with guard skills, Travers is able to rip down rebounds and push the ball up the floor, while also being used as a screener, cutter, and ball handler in offensive actions. United coach Dean Vickerman will be able to get creative, and there’s every reason to think he can unlock more of Travers’ offensive potential.

His value as a defender is well known by now — with the size to guard forwards and the mobility to defend on the perimeter, Travers might already be the most versatile defender in the league. That will help to enhance a Melbourne defence that slipped slightly from their lofty standards last season, ranking fifth in the league in defensive rating, per Spatial Jam. With elite guards in Shea Ili and Matthew Dellavedova in front of him, and backed up by strong rim protection from Ariel Hukporti and, once healthy, Jo Lual-Acuil, Travers should have the freedom to roam and make even more impact plays.

This year’s rookie class looms as one of the deepest in the league’s history, but they will take some time to settle into the professional game. Travers, on the other hand, is now heading into his fifth NBL season, with a championship ring and plenty of big-game experience already on his resume. That gives him a huge edge here, and he has to be the presumptive favourite heading into the season.

Honourable mentions

Sam Waardenburg, Cairns Taipans

Last year’s winner will be eligible once again this season, and there’s no reason to think Waardenburg can’t be even better in his second NBL campaign. The anchor of an elite Taipans defence, he played a key role in a team that outperformed expectations and made it all the way to the semi-finals.

After losing their top two scorers, D.J. Hogg and Keanu Pinder, in the offseason, he should bump up his 11.3 points per game from last season, with his ability to score from the perimeter and around the basket extremely valuable in a fast-paced offence. His counting stats might not jump out defensively, but he’s an excellent rim protector and mobile for his size. If Cairns can upset the odds once again this season, then Waardenburg will be a big part of it and will be right up there in Next Generation voting once again.

Alexandre Sarr, Perth Wildcats

Sarr is the hottest prospect in the NBL right now, and while his future undoubtedly lies in the NBA, he should have an immediate impact for the Wildcats. That much became clear in a ridiculous run of preseason performances, starting with a pair of six-block outings against the G League Ignite in Vegas and ending with a solid NBL Blitz.

Those efforts have seen Sarr rocket into contention to be the number one pick in next year’s NBA Draft, and it’s easy to see why. The 18-year-old is already a well-rounded player, able to protect the rim and switch onto the perimeter defensively while scoring from all three levels. He’ll come off the bench for the Wildcats, who are still searching for an import four to add to their roster, but he’s a more NBL-ready prospect than many would have predicted and should still play big minutes for a team with title aspirations.

Best Sixth Man: Parker Jackson-Cartwright, New Zealand Breakers

Last season, the Best Sixth Man award was mostly a one-horse race. New Zealand’s Barry Brown Jr. was a reserve in name only; he played 27 minutes per game, was in all of the Breakers’ closing lineups, and finished the season ranked fourth in the league for scoring. With the team making it all the way to the Grand Final series, he was an obvious choice.

Brown has now departed, but his replacement looks set to be every bit as good.