NBL: Comparing preseason stats to regular season output

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How much can we actually read into a player’s preseason stats? Player availability and the quality of an opposition can greatly fluctuate, often throwing out normal rotations and roles within a team. Here I take a look at the past two NBL preseason’s and compare those stats with what was produced in that same regular season (and playoffs) from both locals and new imports.

LOCALS

These guys are intriguing in their own way with rookies that have fans filled with optimism, as well as the other players who seemingly have untapped potential. 2014-15 MINS PPG FG% 3P% FT% REB AST TNV STL BLK PF Mitch Creek Preseason 32 24.0 52.6 13.3 85.7 8.4 3.6 1.6 0.8 1.0 2.4 Regular Season 24 11.2 50.0 20.8 67.0 4.4 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.3 1.7 Corey Webster Preseason 29 18.3 41.5 33.3 91.7 2.0 1.3 1.3 1.3 0.0 2.0 Regular Season 29 15.3 41.8 42.0 75.7 2.4 1.7 1.3 1.0 0.3 2.5 Tom Garlepp Preseason 27 16.0 61.0 50.0 69.2 5.4 2.5 1.9 0.6 1.3 2.5 Regular Season 28 13.6 47.2 47.4 76.5 4.1 2.3 1.4 0.6 1.0 2.5 Cody Ellis Preseason 26 14.1 44.9 29.6 87.9 4.9 1.1 1.1 0.1 0.4 2.4 Regular Season 18 6.9 41.3 31.0 83.6 3.4 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.9 1.2 Tai Wesley Preseason 23 12.3 59.5 0.0 62.5 5.0 1.0 1.3 0.3 0.3 3.3 Regular Season 19 8.0 50.5 15.4 64.3 4.8 1.5 1.1 0.3 0.7 2.8 Josh Duinker Preseason 21 12.1 64.6 50.0 74.2 5.6 0.6 1.3 0.6 1.1 3.0 Regular Season 19 5.6 51.5 0.0 47.6 3.9 0.2 1.1 0.5 0.3 1.9 Angus Brandt Preseason 18 10.0 60.7 33.3 44.0 6.1 1.1 1.1 0.3 0.4 2.8 Regular Season 19 7.4 49.6 20.0 73.0 4.0 0.3 1.4 0.5 0.4 3.0 2013-14 MINS PPG FG% 3P% FT% REB AST TNV STL BLK PF Chris Goulding Preseason 32 23.8 51.8 36.4 75.0 4.8 1.8 3.0 1.0 0.0 2.8 Regular Season 36 22.8 43.8 37.2 80.5 3.2 2.8 2.8 0.4 0.2 2.4 Brad Hill Preseason 30 19.8 54.8 38.7 78.8 6.2 1.6 1.8 0.4 0.3 3.2 Regular Season 13 5.2 43.8 23.8 55.9 2.9 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.6 Nate Tomlinson Preseason 35 12.2 40.5 33.3 88.6 4.0 5.2 2.6 0.8 0.0 2.8 Regular Season 31 7.6 37.5 35.2 73.7 3.4 5.3 1.8 0.7 0.1 2.7 Cameron Gliddon Preseason 28 11.6 45.9 38.5 88.0 4.1 4.0 1.0 1.0 0.3 1.8 Regular Season 31 12.1 50.2 36.9 81.0 3.1 2.9 2.0 1.0 0.3 2.2 Tom Jervis Preseason 16 8.2 57.6 0.0 64.7 4.7 0.8 1.3 0.0 1.5 4.0 Regular Season 17 5.1 45.6 0.0 62.7 4.8 1.2 0.9 0.2 1.2 2.9 Career best seasons have been made in the preseason over the last two years with Chris Goulding, Nate Tomlinson, Corey Webster, Mitch Creek, Tom Garlepp and Cam Gliddon (all to varying degrees) turning strong preseason form into increased production in the regular season. The work had obviously been put in and coupled with some natural progression, as well as an opportunity for extra minutes (e.g. Tomlinson had Stephen Dennis tear his Achilles), these guys upped their level of play. The trio of Tai Wesley, Tom Jervis and Angus Brandt (all first timers in the league) also showed their promise before settling in at a similar level once the regular season came around.

On the flip side, the much maligned Brad Hill turned in one heck of a preseason for Sydney and looked like an inspired signing before falling out of the rotation in the regular season (Sam Young’s arrival didn’t help his cause).

Overall, good signs for locals in the preseason are indeed good signs, although you have to make sure you consider whether a player’s role in a certain preseason game will be the one that they play with a full roster available and a team’s playoff aspirations on the line.

IMPORTS

These are the imports who have come into the league with no NBL experience but plenty of YouTube highlights. The chance to see them in their new team’s setting for the first time is one of the highlights of the exhibition games. 2014-15 MINS PPG FG% 3P% FT% REB AST TNV STL BLK PF Jordan McRae Preseason 29 17.8 40.9 21.9 70.6 3.3 2.2 3.0 0.7 0.5 3.7 Regular Season 30 19.9 44.1 35.4 79.3 4.8 2.7 2.4 1.0 0.9 2.3 Mickell Gladness Preseason 21 16.8 70.2 0.0 60.0 4.4 0.6 2.2 0.0 2.2 1.2 Regular Season 25 9.1 53.1 0.0 50.6 7.7 0.4 1.4 0.3 2.0 2.2 Scottie Wilbekin Preseason 29 16.3 51.0 47.1 77.8 3.0 5.8 1.3 1.5 0.0 1.3 Regular Season 31 15.2 39.1 28.4 83.5 3.7 4.3 1.7 1.1 0.1 2.3 Josh Childress Preseason 24 16.3 60.0 20.0 66.7 8.3 2.0 0.7 0.0 0.7 3.7 Regular Season 36 21.1 51.1 25.5 70.0 9.2 4.2 2.6 0.8 2.1 2.6 Kendrick Perry Preseason 27 15.8 47.5 37.5 75.0 3.6 3.2 2.6 1.3 0.0 3.3 Regular Season 24 10.4 41.0 27.6 73.8 3.6 2.4 1.7 1.1 0.3 2.9 Jahii Carson Preseason 23 15.8 44.2 20.0 82.8 2.8 2.0 2.5 0.3 0.2 2.5 Regular Season 27 14.5 43.2 28.8 76.2 2.5 2.4 2.6 0.8 0.0 2.7 Daequon Montreal Preseason 23 12.5 56.1 20.0 38.5 4.3 1.3 1.5 0.8 0.5 2.8 Regular Season 18 9.6 50.0 30.8 57.1 3.8 0.8 1.8 0.4 0.6 2.6 DeAndre Daniels Preseason 23 11.0 37.0 37.5 58.8 8.7 0.3 4.0 1.0 0.0 2.3 Regular Season 31 14.8 39.6 34.1 66.4 7.3 1.2 2.3 0.6 1.1 2.4 Stephen Dennis Preseason 23 10.3 51.4 25.0 60.0 3.0 3.8 1.5 1.5 0.3 1.8 Regular Season 23 10.0 43.6 29.1 73.8 3.3 3.3 2.3 1.3 0.2 2.0 Torrey Craig Preseason 22 9.3 36.1 29.4 60.0 4.3 0.5 1.8 0.3 0.0 2.8 Regular Season 20 8.9 47.0 37.1 45.0 5.7 1.2 1.3 0.5 0.8 2.3 Ekene Ibekwe Preseason 19 9.0 55.6 66.7 80.0 6.5 0.8 1.3 0.0 0.5 4.3 Regular Season 22 11.8 59.6 40.0 62.3 6.2 0.9 1.3 0.9 1.8 3.6 2013-14 MINS PPG FG% 3P% FT% REB AST TNV STL BLK PF Josh Pace Preseason 31 21.2 57.5 20.0 77.8 5.4 2.4 1.6 0.8 0.8 4.2 Regular Season 28 14.9 49.8 10.0 80.5 5.0 1.7 1.7 0.5 0.4 2.7 Rotnei Clarke Preseason 39 20.8 52.9 44.4 77.8 3.8 3.4 2.0 0.6 0.0 3.2 Regular Season 36 21.1 45.7 40.3 81.0 2.0 3.4 2.4 0.5 0.0 1.3 Brian Conklin Preseason 26 20.2 52.2 0.0 79.5 4.8 0.6 2.6 0.2 0.4 4.0 Regular Season 29 16.2 49.3 0.0 77.9 4.8 1.3 2.2 0.7 0.4 3.1 James Ennis Preseason 24 18.3 47.4 35.7 84.8 6.3 3.0 2.3 1.7 1.2 3.7 Regular Season 32 21.2 46.6 35.5 77.0 7.2 2.1 2.7 1.4 0.9 2.6 Kerron Johnson Preseason 30 17.3 48.0 35.3 74.1 3.6 4.9 1.9 0.9 0.1 2.4 Regular Season 28 12.6 50.0 31.1 59.8 2.8 4.3 2.1 1.2 0.1 3.4 Charles Carmouche Preseason 32 14.9 32.4 29.7 71.1 4.6 1.1 3.0 0.6 0.4 4.3 Regular Season 26 11.6 37.6 39.2 66.7 3.1 1.3 1.6 1.0 0.4 3.1 Jarrid Frye Preseason 25 13.8 50.0 37.5 43.8 5.8 1.5 2.2 0.5 0.8 3.7 Regular Season 21 8.2 45.6 9.1 29.3 4.4 1.5 1.2 1.0 0.3 1.4 Scott Morrison Preseason 22 13.5 59.6 0.0 56.7 8.0 0.7 1.8 0.5 1.2 3.5 Regular Season 26 11.3 58.9 0.0 71.2 6.8 0.6 1.7 0.5 1.3 3.2 Jermaine Beal Preseason 28 12.6 39.2 36.7 80.0 1.0 3.0 2.0 0.4 0.0 2.8 Regular Season 32 15.6 42.0 43.2 82.4 2.4 3.4 2.0 0.5 0.0 1.8 Jesse Sanders Preseason 35 11.6 35.5 21.4 77.3 7.0 4.4 1.6 0.9 0.0 3.1 Regular Season 31 10.5 44.1 17.2 89.5 4.7 3.5 2.2 1.9 0.1 2.5 Demetri McCamey Preseason 25 10.0 34.1 38.9 83.3 3.0 3.0 1.0 0.8 0.5 3.5 Regular Season 27 11.6 42.7 35.8 74.5 3.3 2.9 1.8 0.6 0.3 2.3 Import production in the preseason has been fairly indicative of true quality, although there are of course some exceptions to this (good and bad).

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Those who bought into Mickell Gladness being more of a two way player than advertised were quickly brought back down to earth as he proved to be not much of an offensive threat outside of the restricted area. Kendrick Perry put up some solid preseason numbers but then turned in just a serviceable season, even losing his starting spot to Jason Cadee for a stretch. Perry probably still has nightmares about Damian Martin smothering him in Perth as he tried to bring the ball up the court.

Ekene Ibekwe’s foul trouble was as obvious as Rotnei Clarke’s elite volume shooting and this carried over into the regular season. Ibekwe did however improve enough in this regard to be able to play a major role in New Zealand’s championship win with an impact on both ends of the floor.

Separating someone like Demetri McCamey from Charles Carmouche or Jermaine Beal based strictly off preseason form can be tricky. Carmouche ended up battling through two thirds of the season, McCamey’s form was patchy throughout, whilst Beal proved to be in a different class as he elevated his play to that of a Grand Final MVP.

One thing is for sure when discussing the preseason though and that is the importance for fans to not only see the numbers, but also to see the vision of the game. Combining both will generally be a winning formula, although there may be the odd Ben Allen or Brad Hill that tricks you into the wrong thinking.

A full list of preseason statistics for 2013-14 and 2014-15 seasons can be found at crunchtimeshots.com Regular season and playoff statistics can be found at realgm.com