College or NBA draft? Unpacking an age-old dilemma
Entering the NBA draft is often about timing as much as ability, but the advent of NIL (Name, Image, Likeness) contracts has added an extra layer of complexity to the equation
For top tier collegiate athletes playing at NCAA Division I level, many will pursue professional basketball as the next logical step in their journey. And among the very best of the best, the allure of the NBA draft presents a dilemma which has become increasingly challenging to navigate in recent years. Historically, top draft prospects would jump at the chance to play in the NBA if they saw themselves projected as a lottery pick, or even a first round pick. Aside from rare exceptions like Marcus Smart who spent two years at Oklahoma State, most players would leave school at the earliest opportunity —usually after their freshman year— if they were getting significant attention on mock drafts.
Players that elected to stay in school would usually be those on the fringes of draft selection, or ambitious individuals aiming to increase their stock. One example of the latter would be Australia’s own Andrew Bogut, who stayed at the University of Utah for his sophomore year, and went from being a fringe first rounder to a number one selection. But this landscape has shifted significantly since 2021, when the NCAA announced the launch of NIL (Name, Image, Likeness) contracts. With collegiate athletes now able to earn income before turning professional, professional basketball suddenly became less appealing for those facing uncertainty in terms of their draft stock. Also in 2021, the NCAA started allowing players to transfer without sitting out a year, creating additional incentive to squeeze out every ounce of collegiate eligibility.
Collegiate basketball was historically the default pathway for top prospects hoping to make the NBA, and especially so after the league cracked down on direct entrants out of high school in 2006. But in more recent years, with the advent of programs such as the NBL’s Next Stars initiative, and the G League’s now-defunct Ignite team, the NCAA suddenly lost its monopoly over the top pre-NBA hoopers. The NIL decision and transfer rule changes may have been prompted by a desire to swing the pendulum back in favour of college basketball, although the NBL’s Next Stars program remains alive and well.
Tyrese Proctor is the perfect example of a player who faced several dilemmas to go pro or stay in school. The Sydney native started his collegiate career in 2022, at the famed Duke University, and ended up staying for three years. In his freshman year, Proctor was listed as a fringe first rounder on several mock drafts, but ultimately did not enter his name for the 2023 edition. His stock fell somewhat in the back end of the 2022-23 season, and this may have spurred such a decision, but he was still firmly in the frame for draft selection at some point.
Proctor entered the 2023-24 season projected as a potential lottery pick, but once again his stock fell throughout the season and he ended up back at square one, landing in the second round of most mocks. An NBA debut was still on the cards, but injuries had halted his momentum, and Proctor decided to stay at Duke for one more year. After his junior year in 2024-25, the Aussie finally entered his name in the draft, and wound up being a 49th overall selection by the Cleveland Cavaliers. One could argue he may have achieved a similar outcome by entering the draft two years earlier as a freshman, but such debates need to factor in the all-important NIL consideration.
It’s unclear as to how much Proctor earned through NIL endorsements, but outlets such as CODE Sports suggested a figure in excess of US$400,000. The financial incentive might have given Proctor security in pursuing the otherwise risky move of returning to school, thus freeing him to try and increase his draft stock. Proctor signed a four-year, US$8.69 million deal with the Cavaliers, and while there’s no evidence that he would have earned more through NIL deals, the concept of a financial cushion would have left a bigger impact than the dollar value itself.
More recently, Alex Condon was one of Australia’s top draft prospects in 2025, but ultimately withdrew his name to spend another year at the University of Florida. Condon was a likely second-round selection, but instead chose to capitalise on NIL opportunities, while trying to increase his draft stock in his junior year. He currently sits in a similar position on 2026 mocks, so his position hasn’t fallen, but that would have always been a risk after the decision he made.
For those who don’t find themselves within the frame for NBA draft selection, but still secure NIL endorsements, the decision is a lot easier. Oscar Cluff is one of Australia’s top big man prospects, and at age 24, a true veteran of the college basketball scene. The 6’11 centre is currently in his senior year at Purdue University - his third Division I team in three years. Changes to the transfer rules have allowed players like Cluff to truly maximise their collegiate basketball career.
The next step for Cluff will undoubtedly be professional basketball, but he hasn’t seen much love on NBA mock drafts. A return home to play in the NBL carries plenty of appeal, but perhaps not as much as his NIL contract, reported to be upwards of A$2.6 million this season, as per Fox Sports. Cluff is a regular starter for Purdue —currently ranked within the NCAA’s top ten— and gets guaranteed playing time, which wouldn’t necessarily be the case with a professional outfit. All in all, Cluff’s college basketball career paints a picture of exactly why so many guys are choosing to stay in school.
For now, the NBL’s Next Stars program holds its own, with talented prospects like Karim Lopez and Dash Daniels providing strong representation ahead of the 2026 NBA draft. But as the NIL deals escalate in value and abundance, one can only wonder if the NBL, and other alternatives to collegiate basketball will be able to keep up. The G League shut its Ignite team down four years after its launch, in a sign that the NCAA may reestablish its monopoly over basketball’s top prospects.
In the Aussie basketball scene, we haven’t yet seen a lottery pick —or even a bona fide first round pick— decide to stay in school in the NIL era just yet. When such a player arrives on to the scene, and faces this dilemma, the true pull of the NCAA’s NIL endorsements will become apparent. There isn’t a great deal the NBL can do in response, as the league’s Next Stars program has no hope of competing with the NCAA in terms of finances, guaranteed playing opportunities or exposure.
Rather, the current path taken by the NBL, in recruiting international players for one to two years, is an excellent direction. As long as players like Alex Sarr and Karim Lopez continue to make their way down under, the NBL will remain a viable alternative to the NCAA. For those that choose the NCAA pathway, we will see many more transfers and many more players electing to squeeze the proverbial lemon, by using up all four years of college eligibility.