Can Josh Giddey find his groove on a Thunder team chasing postseason success?

The Oklahoma City Thunder are fighting to stay alive in the NBA playoffs, and Josh Giddey has recently become the odd man out on a talented roster.

Heading into the 2024 NBA playoffs, Josh Giddey had plenty of reason for optimism.

On a talented Oklahoma City Thunder roster that had added star rookie Chet Holmgren this season, Giddey had found himself sliding down the offensive pecking order. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was firmly entrenched as the team’s number one scoring option, and primary ball-handler, while Jalen Williams was also making strides as a future back court stud. There were concerns that Giddey might fall out of the picture altogether, and find himself on the trade block, but a stellar month of play in March had helped allayed such fears. He turned around what had looked like a challenging season, averaging 16.3 points, 7.0 rebounds and 5.5 assists for the month, which was well above his season figures of 12.3 points, 6.4 rebounds and 4.8 assists.

In round one of the playoffs, Oklahoma City cruised to victory and Giddey was an efficient contributor. His averages of 12.5 points, 5.0 rebounds and 3.3 assists don’t jump off the page, but the Aussie shot an impressive 47% from the field, as well as 50% from downtown (4.5 attempts per game). He proved his worth in game three, dropping 21 points on four of seven shooting from beyond the arc, to go with an impressive +/- of +15. Giddey’s jumper has always been the biggest question mark around his game, and the young guard showed steady improvement throughout the 2023-24 season. His season three-point clip of 33.7% was an improvement on the year before (32.5%) and a major leap from his rookie year figure (26.3%).

Giddey produced roughly the same three-point volume in the 2023-24 season (3.0 attempts per game) as he did in 2022-23, despite taking nearly four fewer shots overall per game - a consequence of Oklahoma City’s new offensive hierarchy. With several ball handlers on the roster, and a bonafide superstar in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the Thunder need Giddey’s off-ball shooting than ever before.

When the shots are falling, as they did against New Orleans, Giddey fits into the team seamlessly. His defensive rebounding is of high value, given that aside from Holmgren, the Thunder don’t have another starting player standing over 6’6 tall. And there’s no denying Giddey’s ability as a playmaker, both in the half court and in transition. Giddey is a master of the drive and kick pass, which he routinely applies to find open shooters on the perimeter. The 21 year old has incredible vision for his age and experience; he is equally capable of threading the needle and finding a cutting big man, or a player positioned well in the post.

But it’s not just shooting that Oklahoma City needs from Giddey, in their new look offence. With the Aussie getting fewer scoring touches, his defensive deficiencies at the other end have come to the forefront. If head coach Mark Daigneault intends to play through Gilgeous-Alexander and Williams, there’s an argument he would benefit from adding a defensive specialist to the mix, rather than a ball-dominant guard like Giddey. And that’s part of the reason Giddey has suddenly seen his playing time fall off a cliff in the Western Conference semi-finals, where Oklahoma City is locked in a tight contest against the Dallas Mavericks.

At the time of writing, the Mavericks are up 3-2, and Giddey has largely been observing from the sidelines. He has averaged just 13.0 minutes in this series, in which he has produced 7.0 points on 44% shooting from the field. The writing was on the wall in game one, where Giddey played only a touch over three minutes in Oklahoma City’s breakaway fourth quarter. Still, it was a blowout 117-95 win for the Thunder, so there was an argument that Giddey could see more time in a closer game.

But that ultimately wasn’t the case, as he has consistently played around 12 minutes in the four games since. Giddey’s shortcomings came to the forefront in Oklahoma City’s 119-110 game two loss, where he recorded a +/- of -20 in eleven minutes of playing time. The Aussie has never been known for his defence, but in this particular series, his relative lack of impact on that end has likely become a concern for Daigneault.

Oklahoma City can draw plays from Williams and Gilgeous-Alexander, while Holmgren is a key target in the passing game, so Giddey’s offensive genius has often been surplus to requirements. At the other end, he has often been caught napping by screens and backdoor cuts, while also struggling to make defensive plays in one on one situations. Giddey isn’t one to make a defensive impact in the box score either, with season averages of 0.6 blocks and 0.7 steals.

In game five, Daigneault went so far as to trial a new-look starting lineup. Giddey made his first off-bench appearance of the season, and despite dropping eleven points in twelve minutes, the Thunder were beaten by a scoreline of 104-92. Daigneault’s next move is anyone’s guess - Giddey’s mini-resurgence may earn him a ticket back to the starting lineup, or the coach may maintain his status quo ahead of a do or die game. Either way, Giddey appears to be destined for limited playing time, with minutes in the low teens.

Oklahoma City’s playoff rotations have raised questions as to whether Giddey is in an optimal environment for his development. On one hand, he is able to taste playoff basketball at such an early stage in his career, and deep runs where his team is two games from a Conference Finals berth. However, there’s no denying the elephant in the room; Giddey needs the ball in his hands to excel, and there’s two men standing in his way: MVP candidate Gilgeous-Alexander, and a likely future All-Star in Williams.

In seven games without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Giddey averaged 19.0 points, 7.4 rebounds and 6.7 assists, while shooting a touch under 54% from the field. The sample size is obviously small, but it’s hardly surprising that Giddey reaches a new level when he becomes the primary ball handler. One could argue the Thunder can’t fully utilise his passing vision when there are so many mouths to feed on the offensive end.

It’s a bit premature to be listing Giddey as a trade piece. After all, he bounced back from adversity to close out the 2023-24 regular season in style. But the next offseason will be a critical one for Giddey, as his developing jump shot and defensive value could have a big say in whether he remains a Thunder guard. If Giddey cultivates a more reliable outside shot, or becomes a more switchable defender, his value to this team will increase exponentially. Daigneault needs to find a way to pair him with Gilgeous-Alexander and Williams, especially in important playoff matches, because right now, the Mavericks-Thunder series is painting a bleak picture.