Big V 2015: State Championship Women - The Run Home

As the Big V season enters its pointy end, #TeamPnR’s Dean Zardo takes a look at the run home for all eleven clubs and where they are likely to finish the season.

Ringwood Hawks

Current Record: 10-1 (1st)

Games to come: McKinnon (Home), Waverley (H), Hume City (Away), Sherbrooke (A), Southern Peninsula (A), Melbourne (H), Southern Peninsula (H), Bulleen (A), Eltham (H)

The Hawks have looked the goods again in 2015 after two straight years of finishing runners up, and with a commanding 10-1 record and a relatively good run home it is hard to see them dropping out of the top two. The next month will determine whether they finish first or second, with tough matches against Waverley, Hume City and Southern Peninsula to come. Nonetheless, the Hawks probably won’t lose more than two games the rest of the way as they look to go one better and win the title this year.

Predicted Record: 17-3 (2nd)

Hume City Broncos

Current Record: 10-1 (2nd)

Games to come: Eltham (H), Sherbrooke (A), Ringwood (H), Diamond Valley (H), Waverley (A), Bulleen (H), Eltham (A), Sherbrooke (H), Diamond Valley (A)

Credit: Big V Media

The defending champions have perhaps been the best side this season, but currently sit second on percentage only. In saying that, Hume currently has the split on Ringwood by two points ahead of their second contest in a couple of weeks time, and being a home game the Broncos are in the box seat to take the top seed ahead of the finals. Other than that clash and a matchup with Waverley – who handed the Broncos their only loss in a one-point thriller earlier in the year – it is hard to see where the Broncos will falter again.

Predicted Record: 18-2 (1st)

Waverley Falcons

Current Record: 9-3 (3rd)

Games to come: Diamond Valley (A), Ringwood (A), Melbourne (A), Eltham (H), Hume City (H), Eltham (A), Warrandyte (A), Sherbrooke (H)

The Falcons are really starting to click after a patchy start to the season, with six wins in their last seven outings since a two-point defeat at the hands of ladder-leading Ringwood. Their only other two losses have come at the hands of Southern Peninsula – by 28 and one – which could prove crucial in determining seedings later in the season. Ahead, the Falcons play the Hawks and the Broncos once each, but will otherwise have six games against sides currently seventh or lower, making for a good run home for a Falcons side brimming with talent.

Predicted Record: 15-5 (3rd)

Southern Peninsula Sharks

Current Record: 8-3 (4th)

Games to come: Sherbrooke (H), Eltham (A), Diamond Valley (A), Ringwood (H), Melbourne (A), McKinnon (H), Ringwood (A), Diamond Valley (H), McKinnon (A)

Credit: Big V Media

The surprise packet of the season has undoubtedly been the Sharks, who have come up from Division One and looked right at home. With a very talented – albeit young – roster, whether they can sustain it for the remainder of the season remains to be seen. Two matches each against Ringwood and McKinnon will be crucial in their race for third place, but holding head-to-head over Waverley is something they certainly have in their favour. They will need to take at least two wins from those four matches and beat all the sides below them, which is not impossible but may prove just out of reach. Either way, they are almost certainly going to play finals, which is a huge achievement for State Championship’s newest side.

Predicted Record: 14-6 (4th)

Bulleen Boomers

Current Record: 6-5 (5th)

Games to come: Melbourne (H), McKinnon (A), Eltham (A), Diamond Valley (A), Sherbrooke (H), Hume City (A), Melbourne (A), Ringwood (H), Warrandyte (H)

The Boomers have lost four of their last five but have a good run home after enduring a horror month where they played the other five teams in the top six in succession. A last-start three-point loss to Ringwood was heartbreaking, and they gave up the split against Southern Peninsula a night earlier. However, with just two games to come against sides currently in the finals, the Boomers should recover in time to play finals, but matches against Melbourne (twice), Eltham and McKinnon are crucial given those sides are breathing down their necks and ready to take their spot.

Predicted Record: 11-9 (5th)

Eltham Wildcats

Current Record: 5-6 (6th)

Games to come: Hume City (A), Southern Peninsula (H), Bulleen (H), Waverley (A), Warrandyte (A), Waverley (H), Hume City (H), McKinnon (A), Ringwood (A)

Credit: Big V Media

The Wildcats have a horror run home and will need to improve dramatically if they are to contend for finals. While they currently sit just one win out of sixth, they have only recorded wins against Sherbrooke (twice), Melbourne, Warrandyte and Diamond Valley, and are yet to challenge any of the sides currently occupying the top six spots. They will likely need to win at least six more games to qualify, and given their draw that seems very unlikely.

Predicted Record: 7-13 (8th)

McKinnon Cougars

Current Record: 5-6 (7th)

Games to come: Ringwood (A), Bulleen (H), Warrandyte (A), Sherbrooke (H), Diamond Valley (H), Southern Peninsula (A), Melbourne (A), Eltham (H), Southern Peninsula (H)

The Cougars have the best chance of displacing Bulleen in the top five, with a favourable run home that features matches against Warrandyte, Sherbrooke, Diamond Valley, Melbourne and Eltham. The match against Bulleen in a fortnight looms as a potential decider, with two clashes against the Sharks and a trip to Ringwood the tough ones. If the Cougars can knock off Bulleen, it will likely come down to the split between themselves and the Boomers, with the latter currently holding a +8 advantage ahead of the second clash.

Predicted Record: 11-9 (6th)

Melbourne Tigers

Current Record: 4-8 (8th)

Games to come: Bulleen (A), Warrandyte (A), Waverley (H), Southern Peninsula (H), Ringwood (A), Sherbrooke (A), McKinnon (H), Bulleen (H)

The Tigers, like Eltham, have a horror run home and will likely struggle to compete for a finals berth. Two matches against Bulleen and one against McKinnon are crucial, but games against Waverley, Southern Peninsula and Ringwood will also make it very tough for the Tigers. Splitting the series with the Boomers and beating McKinnon is the only way that Melbourne can potentially sneak into the finals, but even then it will likely come down to head-to-head between the clubs at best.

Predicted Record: 7-13 (7th)

Diamond Valley Eagles

Current Record: 3-7 (9th)

Games to come: Warrandyte (A), Waverley (H), Southern Peninsula (H), Hume City (A), Bulleen (H), McKinnon (A), Sherbrooke (H), Warrandyte (H), Southern Peninsula (A), Hume City (H)

Credit: Big V Media

The young Eagles have been up-and-down this season, but are yet to face either Southern Peninsula or Hume City and will have to play each side twice in the run home, as well as hosting Waverley and Bulleen along the way. There are winnable games against the Venom and the Suns to come, but other than that it may be a long couple of months for Diamond Valley as their season fizzles out.

Predicted Record: 5-15 (9th)

Warrandyte Venom

Current Record: 1-11 (10th)

Games to come: Diamond Valley (H), Melbourne (H), McKinnon (H), Sherbrooke (A), Eltham (H), Diamond Valley (A), Waverley (H), Bulleen (A)

The addition of Chastity Reed has done very little to help the Venom, with her side struggling to a 1-11 record on the back of some poor offense. Warrandyte is yet to score over 60 points in a game this season and have failed to reach 50 in their past six. The one thing in their favour in the run home is that they only play Waverley and Bulleen of the teams currently in the top five, with a stretch of relatively winnable games coming up the Venom in the meantime.

Predicted Record: 4-16 (10th)

Sherbrooke Suns

Current Record: 0-10 (11th)

Games to come: Southern Peninsula (A), Hume City (H), Ringwood (H), Warrandyte (H), McKinnon (A), Bulleen (A), Diamond Valley (A), Melbourne (H), Hume City (A), Waverley (A)

The Suns have been simply awful this season and it doesn’t get any easier in the run home, with six of their remaining 10 matches against teams currently in the finals spots, as well as a trip to sixth-placed McKinnon. There is an opportunity for victory against the likes of Warrandyte and Diamond Valley, but even in those matchups it would take something special for the Suns. There is a good chance they will fail to win a game in 2015, but surely the Suns will spring a surprise win somewhere between now and the end of the season.

Predicted Record: 1-19 (11th)

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