A look into the numbers behind the tightest NBL season in years
We've had some tight NBL seasons in the past, but NBL24 may end up putting them all to shame.
Image credit: May Bailey Photography
Every NBL season seems to have its clear frontrunners and the teams that are constantly bringing up the rear of the pack. In the middle, there can be a tight battle, but as the playoffs edge closer, the field of potential postseason teams dwindle.
2024, on the other hand, is different.
With five rounds remaining, and the handy inclusion of the play-in tournament, every team still has a realistic chance of playing some form of postseason basketball. The new format was introduced for more meaningful basketball later in the piece, but it’s not just the play-in tournament that has caused this exciting race. We are actually in the midst of one of the closer NBL seasons in a while.
Currently, the gap between first and last sits at nine wins (as at 16-Jan-24). Both Melbourne United and the Adelaide 36ers have played 21 games apiece; the former has racked up 16 Ws, the latter seven.
There is still basketball to play, but to give you context, the smallest win gap between the top and bottom of the table in the previous six seasons of the league was 11 back in 2017/18.
Speaking of the 36ers: their current win total of seven —with another seven games still to play— is already higher than half of the last-place finishers’ total wins from the previous 10 NBL seasons.
From those earlier 10 seasons, the most wins last place finished with was 10: the Townsville Crocs in 13/14 and the Brisbane Bullets in 16/17.
With all teams in NBL24 currently sitting with seven wins or more, it’s highly likely another team could join the not-so-fun club of double-digit wins but a wooden spoon in the trophy cabinet.
The middle of the pack is where things get even more interesting. Currently, the win percentage (total wins/total games played) between the third-placed JackJumpers (50%) and sixth-placed Hawks (47.37%) sits at under 3%.
Over the last 10 years of the league, only three times has that same gap between positions been a single-digit percentage. In fact, only once in that stretch has it even been less than 5%, which was back in 2019/20, when the Taipans finished third (57.1%) and the Breakers placed sixth (53.6%).
Now for those potentially not mathematically inclined, it means there was just one win separating those two positions that year. So the only real way to clearly break that record is for the teams to finish on equal wins.
It might seem far-fetched, but considering there are six teams all sitting between nine and 11 wins it’s more likely than you think.
TASMANIA | 11-11 | Games left: MEL, NZ, CNS, ADE, SEM, PER
SYDNEY | 11-11 | Games left: PER, SEM, MEL, ADE, ILL, SEM
BRISBANE | 11-11 | Games left: PER, CNS, MEL, ILL, ADE, NZ
ILLAWARRA | 9-10 | Games left: CNS, ADE, PER, NZ, BRI, NZ, SYD, PER, MEL
CAIRNS | 10-12 | Games left: ILL, BRI, ADE, TAS, PER, MEL
SE MELBOURNE | 9-12 | Games left: ADE, NZ, SYD, PER, MEL, TAS, SYD
To save you the hassle, I’ve gone through the rest of the fixture for the remainder of the season, and with some upsets, there is a genuine mathematical chance that all six of these teams finish with a 14-14 record.
Across the last decade, the most amount of teams that have finished on the same record in a single season is three, which occurred in NBL23, NBL20, NBL19, and NBL17.
You have to go all the back to the 1996 season for the last time there were more than three teams who finished with the exact same win-loss tally. That year the Perth Wildcats, Canberra Cannon, Sydney Kings, and the Adelaide 36ers all finished with 16 wins and 10 losses in a fourteen-team competition. South East Melbourne won the championship, current Phoenix coach Mike Kelly won Finals MVP and Chris Anstey won Most Improved Player of the Year as a 21-year-old.
With five rounds still to play in the current season, it might seem silly to make these comparisons, however, it would be a shame not to recognise the brilliant run home that is in front of us considering just how close it really is.
Regardless of whether all of these potentially stunning stats and numbers come to fruition by the end of the season, we must appreciate how truly lucky we are to have a close competition.
Plenty of leagues say it, but not many can truly attest to the fact that any team can beat any other team on any given night. Currently, in the NBL that is a true statement, which is a rare luxury for us hoops fans.
