Who the Boomers could face in quarter-finals, and why USA isn't a lock to qualify

The Boomers play France on Monday night, but it's not the only game that will decide who Australia plays next, when the quarter-finals begin.

Group K's games on Monday will also determine who Australia's opponent in the quarter-finals will be. The winner of Group K will play the second-placed team from Australia's Group L, while the second-placed team from Group K will face off against the winners of Group L.

https://pickandroll.com.au/boomers-france-three-things-to-watch-for-world-cup/

If Australia wins

Australia will play the second-placed team from Group K - this will likely be one of the non-USA countries - Czech Republic, Greece, or Brazil.

If France wins

There's a good chance Australia will play Team USA, should Monday's game result in a loss. Naturally, we would like to avoid the USA for as along as possible, especially in an elimination game.

This isn't set in stone yet - there still exists a potential (and less likely) timeline where a dominant Brazil upset win over USA, coupled with a Czech Republic win could see USA being outed from the World Cup.


How USA could miss the quarter-finals

Brazil beats USA by 22 or more, which means both teams finish their group at four wins and one loss. Czech Republic then must beat Greece to finish on the same record (4-1).

With three teams tied 4-1, the tiebreakers according to FIBA are as follows (in order):

  • H2H win-loss record between the three teams

  • Point differential between the three teams, in games played between them

  • Higher game points scored in games between the three teams

  • Higher point differential of all games in group

  • Higher number of game points scored in all games in group

In the three games these teams played one another, USA won one (vs CZE), Brazil won one (vs USA) and Czech Repulic won one (vs BRA). Therefore, we move onto point differential in those games.

USA

USA 88-67 CZE (+21)

USA -22 or more vs. BRA

Overall -1 (or more)

Brazil

BRA 71-93 CZE (-22)

BRA +22 or more vs. USA

Overall +/- 0 (or more)

Czech Republic

CZE 67-88 USA (-21)

CZE 93-71 BRA (+22)

Overall +1

Scenario 1

Czech Republic (if Brazil defeats USA by 22-23)

Brazil (if defeat USA by 22-23)

USA

Greece

Scenario 2

Brazil (if defeats USA by 24+)

Czech Republic (if Brazil defeats USA by 24+)

USA

Greece

An example can be referenced on page 80 on the rulebook.


Possible outcomes for advancement

  • If USA and Czech Republic win: USA and Czech Republic qualify

  • If USA and Greece win:

    • Greece wins by up to 11 points: USA and Czech Republic qualify

    • Greece wins by 12 points or more: USA and Greece qualify

  • If Brazil and Czech Republic win:

    • Brazil win by 21 points or less: USA and Czech Republic qualify

    • Brazil wins by 22 points or more: Brazil and Czech Republic qualify

  • If Brazil and Greece win: Brazil and USA qualify

Update: James Falleiro also shared this table on Twitter.

https://twitter.com/JFalleiro/status/1170894594361290752

World Cup Group K/L game schedule for Monday 9 September (AEST)

  • Dominican Republic vs Lithuania at 6:00pm

  • Czech Republic vs Greece at 6:30pm

  • Australia vs France at 10:00pm

  • USA vs Brazil at 10:30pm

*Permutations referenced from FIBA website.

**Section on USA scenario by Steve Chalmers.